Security expert: The Ukrainian army is stronger now than in 2022

Ukraine's defense industry is increasingly capable of producing the necessary equipment for the war itself, security expert Rainer Saks believes. The Ukrainian army is currently stronger than it was in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, he added.
"We no longer hear Ukrainians complaining about a shortage of artillery shells and several other issues. But that does not mean that the Ukrainian army has enough resources for successful warfare. For example, air defense remains a problem," Rainer Saks said on Monday's "Vikerhommik" radio show.
The expert said the Russian army has severely exhausted itself. Additional rounds of recruitment have not led to the creation of high-quality army capable of carrying out large-scale offensive operations.
"A war of attrition is ongoing, which neither side actually wants to fight, but they are forced to because other methods are not effective at the moment," he said.
Both sides have suffered heavy losses, meaning the situation is unfavorable for both parties.
"No matter what is being said about the situation at the front, the Russian army has not been able to make significant progress over the past two months or achieve the objectives set for them by Russian leaders," Saks noted.
Saks said Ukraine's recent drone attacks on Russia's industrial infrastructure are linked to the fact that it does not have many other means available.
"These are resources that Ukraine can independently produce. And they are trying to achieve a level of autonomy where they do not have to import components needed for drone production. In fact, Russia is doing exactly the same thing," he explained.
An important aspect of this, according to Saks, is that Ukraine primarily uses drones to attack Russia's military and oil industries, whereas Russia mainly uses its drones to strike Ukrainian cities and deliberately target residential areas.
He is not optimistic that the war will soon end or that peace will be reached. While U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is currently making efforts, its weak point is that it has given Russia favorable conditions to build a destructive counter-strategy.
"If for the U.S. president, the only thing that matters is that negotiations are taking place, then at some point, he will find himself in a very difficult position trying to bring those negotiations to a respectable conclusion."
According to Saks, a series of contacts and consultations are currently taking place, aiming to create a situation where, one day, negotiations will begin for a ceasefire.
Saks was previously the top official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia. Between 2011-2015, he served as the director general of the Estonian Information Board, now the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
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Editor: Urmet Kook, Helen Wright
Source: Vikerhommik