Kristi Raik: Security in 2025 or what doesn't kill you makes you stronger

The world is anxious and out of balance ahead of Donald Trump's return as U.S. president. The old, liberal, rules-based world order is broken and it seems Trump has no interest in fixing it, writes Kristi Raik in a commentary originally published in Diplomaatia.
The liberal order in international politics primarily means relying on norms and institutions. Instead, we are heading into a turbulent period of power struggles between great powers, where might prevails over right. Old concepts such as spheres of influence are coming back into vogue; the fight is over who controls strategically important territories, natural resources and key routes of connectivity.
Trump's primary opponent in this power struggle is China and it's difficult to foresee anything other than continued confrontation with Russia as well.
Trump aims to present himself as a strong leader for whom all means are permissible. His hint at the possibility of using military force in Greenland was a message to China and Russia that the U.S. intends to strengthen its presence in the Arctic. The Arctic will be one of the regions where great power competition will intensify.
This stance may reassure the Nordic countries that U.S. deterrence against Russia and China remains strong in this region. However, it's not out of the question that the major ally could take, or threaten to take, measures that endanger the sovereignty of its smaller allies. Denmark has already received such a warning.
Managing the alliance will not be easy, but the U.S. contribution remains indispensable for European security. Ukraine is seeking to craft its own transactional approach to Trump and it is well-positioned to do so. The country holds a geopolitically crucial location and significant natural resources, including rare earth metals, which the U.S. would not want to see fall into the hands of its adversaries. For the U.S. administration, Ukraine's resources may carry more weight than the principles underpinning European security arrangements.
It is rather unlikely that U.S. support for Ukraine will completely cease. Trump will undoubtedly make efforts to fulfill his promise to end the war in Ukraine, but a sustainable peace is unlikely to be reached within the coming year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine — and simultaneously between Russia and Europe — will continue for years to come.
Europe is not particularly well-prepared for Trump's second term, despite much discussion about the need to do so. There is a great deal of uncertainty, but one thing is clear: the U.S. will exert brutal pressure on Europe to further increase defense spending.
Countries that have made significant contributions to their security are viewed favorably in Washington. Those with defense spending below 2 percent of GDP will face particularly tough scrutiny. Trump's talk of raising the NATO defense spending benchmark to 5 percent has alarmed many European countries. However, it may be a tactical move aimed at securing a more modest compromise, such as a target of 3.5 percent, at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague — making it seem more palatable in comparison.
Poland, the Nordic countries and the Baltic states are likely to secure a privileged position in alliances due to their relatively high defense spending. From their perspective, U.S. pressure on allies to boost defense budgets is a welcome development.
In Europe, there has been talk for years about the need for greater autonomy, but progress in strengthening defense capabilities has been slow. The weak contribution of European countries to their own security increases two risks: first, that the U.S. may lose interest in guaranteeing Europe's security, and second, that Russia could be tempted to test whether NATO's Article 5 still holds.
One can only hope that Trump's threats will spur Europeans into serious action to prevent a wider war in Europe — hoping that U.S. pressure will not undermine but rather strengthen Europe's defense capabilities. At the same time, there is a risk that Trump's "divide and rule" tactics and his support for far-right movements will make it even harder to maintain European unity and form stable governments within European countries.
Estonia would do well to invest in strong cooperation between the Nordic, Baltic and Polish states to collectively ensure the continued presence of the U.S. in our region.
This week's NATO summit of Baltic Sea states in Helsinki, co-hosted by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, sends a strong signal of strengthened regional security cooperation and serves as a deterrent message to Russia. (As a side note, it also marks a significant shift in Estonian-Finnish relations, signaling the removal of previous barriers to security cooperation between the two countries.)
In a changing world, there is unfortunately one constant: the only existential threat to the countries in our region remains Russia.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski