Speaking to ETV's "Impulss" for a segment about U.S. defense involvement in Estonia, Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kaimo Kuusk said: "The goal will not change for us. The United States is a crucial ally, one we want by our side and with whom we hope to share a similar perspective on global issues."

Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jonatan Vseviov agreed.

"The importance of the relationship between Estonia and the US, or the relationship between Europe and the US, is not a necessity driven by ideological preferences or party political preferences, but a strategic necessity. So we look at who is elected president in America and then we try to strengthen the relationship on that basis," he told the show.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has not revealed her intentions toward the Baltic states. But "Impulss" said, as Harris is Biden's vice president and successor, the current policy could be expected to continue.

Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump said he would only protect countries that meet NATO's 2 percent target. As Estonia's defense spending is around 3.5 percent, and Latvia and Lithuania's are almost as high, the three countries should have no problems.

The U.S. also provides direct financial support for Estonia's defense capabilities.

"The contribution of American taxpayer money to Estonia's defense has been long-standing and immediate, and it is very important. I cannot remember the percentages off the top of my head, but we are not talking about token amounts here," said Vseviov.

Since 2016, the United States has provided more than $500 million in security assistance to Estonia, the U.S. Embassy in Tallinn said last year.

Since 2001, the vast majority of foreign assistance to Estonia has fallen under the U.S.' "Conflict, Peace, and Security" category. This has not been dependent on political parties, data from the U.S. Department of State suggests.

Researcher: No big changes during Trump's first term

Nele Loorents, a research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn, told ERR News Trump's first term changed little for Estonia.

Loorents was the Ministry of Defense's defense counselor and representative to the Estonian Embassy in Washington between 2017 and 2021, which coincided with Trump's first term (2016-2020)

Asked if there were changes to the Estonian–U.S. relationship during this time, she said earlier this year: "I would argue that there were no substantial advancements, either negative or positive."

However, Loorents said there were some "some significant trends" during this time concerning Baltic security and increasing NATO's presence which benefited Estonia.

"The heavy push for increased spending by European allies and the demand for meeting 2 percent defense expenditure baseline from GDP worked in our favor by allowing the build-up of more credible and combat-capable forces by European allies in line with NATO's capability targets and requirements," she said. 

NATO's members' defense budgets also rose 5 percent between 2017-2018 and a further 4 percent between 2018-2019, the research fellow said.

But, she stressed: "I would not attribute this positive trend to Trump's pressure for increased spending." Instead, she believes, these increases come from the Allies' growing recognition of the threat posed by Russia. 

But while under Trump's first term of office, if things more or less stayed the same, the situation has changed over the last four years.

Loorents highlights his "hostile rhetoric" about the USA withdrawing from NATO which she says shows NATO's "potential vulnerabilities."

"We should not be blindfolded by the relatively soft defense policy of the previous Trump presidency towards Europe. This was before Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine," she said.

"There are still only 11 allies [in 2023] who meet the 2 percent defense spending expectation and stockpiles in Europe and the U.S are depleted, it can be expected that Trump would have a firm view on Europe's overall contribution to NATO."

The US election takes place on November 5.

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