"Do you have a generator or access to one?" This has been my most frequent question to acquaintances over the past year. The reason lies in our energy system and the growing risk that we might struggle if there isn't enough electricity. There's no need for panic, but we must be prepared. Numerous factors, both positive and negative, impact the energy sector, and I'll explain a few of them below.

We have gone from energy producers to energy consumers

While studying electrical engineering at the Tallinn University of Technology, I was taught some fundamental principles of energy systems: every country must be capable of producing enough electricity to cover its own needs, taking into account peak consumption and potential malfunctions. Additionally, production that cannot be controlled should not be included in that coverage calculation. And as I learned during childhood, you don't spit into the old well before the new one is ready. These rules hold true even without anchor-dragging: every country must be able to manage on its own.

Our energy policy has, in various ways, pushed us toward shutting down oil shale power plants. The electricity market is not a free market; it's heavily regulated. It's governed by taxes (on both production and investment), long-term trends in those taxes, predictability over the long term and, of course, environmental requirements.

Starting with environmental requirements: when these align with the natural aging of technology, owners have a far clearer business plan. This is a stark contrast to situations where regulations tighten suddenly and unexpectedly, demanding massive investments at short notice.

The CO2 tax is the largest of these taxes. When it was introduced, lawmakers projected that it would rise to €30 per ton by 2030. Today, we are paying several times that amount. In other words, we've regulated prices to the point of choking off a significant portion of our electricity production, without making substantial investments to ensure supply security.

Renewable energy subsidies, in my opinion, have created another absurd situation. We now have a large amount of uncontrollable power without a reasonable, manageable backup. One day, we may have hundreds of megawatts' worth of wind and solar energy at a low price, but by evening, the wind dies down and the sun sets. Somewhere, a power plant must be started up to replace that energy. It's akin to a car owner constantly stopping and restarting their car — it wears out the engine and reduces reliability.

We've covered fields with solar panels (rather than planting forests or using the land for crops) and call this a green transition. In other words, during sunny, warmer periods, we produce far more solar energy than we need, while steady producers that previously ensured a reliable supply must now sell electricity at much higher prices during the times we actually need it.

Major guarantors of security of power supply

How will we manage during an energy crisis? A security of supply report should provide clarity and insight into how our system will cope, even under the most negative political scenarios. Without wishful thinking, we need to know what the worst possible situations are now and in the future.

We have oil shale power plants, including the Auvere plant, whose reliability has now reached a very good level for this type of plant. Still, it can break down and the system must account for that possibility. We must also take into account that the remaining energy blocks are very old, nearing the end of their lifespan, and maintenance has been planned accordingly — based on the electricity market and the expected end of their operational life.

These blocks can no longer endure a prolonged energy crisis. Even during a shorter crisis, they may not all be able to start up or remain operational for an entire week. Their maximum capacity is limited to a few hours. In theory, the Narva plants can provide over 1,270 MW, but 1,000 MW of that capacity is politically slated for shutdown, meaning we cannot rely on that capacity being available on demand.

The Balti Power Plant in Narva, which also provides district heating, will reach its operational hour limit this winter. After that, it cannot be restarted without significant disassembly and thorough inspection. In other words, we can no longer guarantee that Narva will consistently supply 1,000 MW. At some points, output could drop to 600 MW or even less and we have no way of knowing how long those reductions could last. From the perspective of long-term energy security, keeping district heating affordable adds further risk to supply security.

Unfortunately, power plants need to be ready for the market at any given moment and in doing so, we are further depleting the limited resources we have. A sensible car owner would never keep starting a 50-year-old car for three minutes, then stopping it, only to restart it 15 minutes later, expecting the vehicle to remain functional in the future. No — it would break down.

In addition to the Narva plants, we have a few smaller plants that contribute to energy security, as well as the Kiisa emergency power plant. During peak consumption (around 1,600 MW), we can meet demand if everything goes well and the wind is blowing. But if things don't go well, we'll have to rely on our neighbors — unless they're also dealing with a crisis or a technical failure.

This is a very simplified overview of the state of our electricity system. In reality, the situation is even more complex, because additional factors come into play, such as energy flows, inertia, frequency, voltage and more. These factors not only complicate the picture but also increase uncertainty when unfavorable conditions coincide.

It's a system that becomes extremely fragile when electricity is primarily generated by wind turbines and solar panels and the nearest controllable, sine-wave-producing power plant is hundreds of kilometers away. I dare say that our synchronous compensators will only get us through a few minor grid failures. The stability of the system under these uncertain conditions is calculated using highly complex and expensive software. Yet, despite all the simulations, the flow of electrons can still surprise us in real life.

Energy threats

And now, it has begun: the Balticconnector and EstLink 2 experienced their first prolonged outages. In reality, things had already been happening before that. In Poland, electricity flowed across borders without any "technical disruptions" only when the prices suited Poland. In Europe, there have been abnormal restrictions, and even nearby, Swedish electricity "didn't fit" through the wires to Finland when it seemed unfavorable to Sweden.

In other words, we're seeing a trend where cross-border trade isn't truly free, and in times of crisis, every country prioritizes its own needs. In this context, it's disheartening to hear the self-assured mantra that cross-border connections are the foundation of supply security. The second EstLink 2 outage merely exposed this fragility.

What they taught us at the Tallinn University of Technology was indeed true: every country must first be able to stand on its own.

Things that go bump in the grid

I trust our grid operator, Elering, and the plan to begin desynchronization — better a horrible end than endless horror. However, from an outsider's perspective, the timing of this — during the worst consumption conditions — does raise some eyebrows.

For the disconnection period, a large number of power plants will presumably be brought online and the system regulated as needed. The lights will stay on and there will be a sense of accomplishment. Until, inevitably, the everyday routine sets in.

One day, wind or solar power will drive prices to zero or below and we'll shut down as many of the old power plants as possible. Then, something unexpected will happen — something that can't be planned for. Perhaps a house roof will be torn off by a storm and hit a major power line or communication with a large power producer will be severed. The same complex energy flows will start moving through the system and at some point, it will no longer be possible to manage them. And this can happen even without anyone intentionally causing harm — though, by now, we know that malicious disruptions have already taken place in some instances.

The system will have to automatically manage its load by cutting off consumers and in some situations even producers. This will happen faster than any human can react. At a frequency of 50 Hz, one cycle lasts just 0.02 seconds and control actions and disconnections occur within just a few cycles.

It's also possible that, in the event of power plant failures, we simply won't have enough electricity and our neighbors won't be able to help either. In that case, Elering will be forced to limit consumption and distribute electricity in shifts — perhaps two hours for one area, then two hours for another or some other rotation. It will be inconvenient for everyone. While refrigerators won't defrost, it's still a bad situation in every possible way.

What can residents do?

So, dear reader, what can you do in a situation where, in anticipation of new and wonderful energy solutions, we've effectively spit into our old energy wells, but the house still needs heating? Until a systemic, large-scale solution is found, we must simply be prepared for possible power outages. People are working hard, making efforts and doing their best, but outages may still occur.

Let's take a look at our household solutions: How many hours without electricity would be critical? How long can you endure without power? This applies not just to remote homes with snow-covered and failing power lines, but also to apartments in the middle of the city. When will your refrigerator start to defrost, when will your living space cool down? Hopefully, electricity will still be rationed in shifts, but we must be prepared for situations where it won't be enough.

Apartment buildings are in a worse position, as they rely on backup batteries and simply have to wait. In private homes, a generator can help keep some things running. I personally chose a small unit that keeps my furnace and water pump running and a few lights on. Those seeking greater comfort, like powering an electric stove or oven, will need to invest more. The worst-case scenario for private homes is having an entirely electric heating system, because in that situation, only an old, soot-producing wood stove can provide any support.

And what about industry? Manufacturing will likely become intermittent during bad times. Companies need to be ready to ensure their systems won't break down during outages. Of course, there are battery backups, but in the crisis scenarios mentioned earlier — without other charging options like solar power — battery owners (if many people have them) could unintentionally harm the grid. When they do get electricity from the grid, they'll take it for both consumption and charging, with some of it wasted as heat.

Therefore, dear reader, think about how prepared you are for an energy crisis, what solutions you can still put in place and let's hope we won't actually need them. And remember — this is always a financially negative project.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!