RKIK: Additional €600 million could be used to buy weapons and ammunition in coming years

According to the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), in a situation where Estonia would like to increase its defense spending next year to 5 percent of GDP, or approximately €600 million, it would be possible to purchase additional ammunition and simpler weapon systems with the extra funds.
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the procurement of some weapons and ammunition has become more difficult. In the case of explosives and ammunition, for example, deadlines have lengthened and prices have risen, partly because of the Ministry of Defense's plans to build an munitions factory in Estonia.
Magnus-Valdemar Saar, head of the RKIK, said that in reality, the lengthening of delivery times and availability depends on the type of armaments being procured. "Certainly there are some items for which the delivery times are very long, nobody would argue with that. Decisions have to be taken today in order to get the goods in 2027 or 2028," Saar said.
Saar added that there are longer delivery times for the more technologically complex components and systems, both due to the manufacturing process as well as the related project management and assembly. The same is true for HIMARS or anti-ship missiles.
In the case of HIMARS, Saare said, expected delivery times are currently in 2029 or 2030 or even further into the future, depending on the quantity. However, other long-range weapons could be acquired sooner.
"There are places from which it is also possible to supply both ammunition and systems relatively quickly. There are also alternatives to all kinds of systems that have just come onto the market and don't have such long waiting lists. Of course, in that case, there are certain risks that would be being taken. When you buy a new system, you take all the risks associated with potential teething problems," Saar said.
It is also relatively easy for the RKIK to increase orders for contracts that are already in progress, or are part of framework contracts that have already been signed.
According to Saar, if something is required by 2026 and 2027 and the relevant decisions are made more or less immediately, then it will certainly possible to buy more ammunition, drones, simpler systems and new supplies to fit existing systems.
Saar also said that some of the more sophisticated systems have been delivered relatively quickly. For example, in the case of the HIMARS, the RKIK signed the contract in December 2022 and they were handed over last week. For the medium-altitude air defense systems, the decision was taken in September 2023 and they should arrive both this year and next.
Finally, the contract for the Caesar self-propelled howitzers was signed in June 2024 and, according to Saar they are expected to be delivered next week.
However, the RKIK says it is important that if defense spending is to be increased as soon as 2026, the government needs to decide it soon as possible, ahead of the state budget procedure and its adoption by the Riigikogu.
"If we think back to, for example, the first weeks of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the government made a decision to purchase €340 million-worth of additional ammunition, that was done outside the budgetary process," Saar said.
In addition to the amount of money, it is also important to define the desired capabilities. In the event that additional funding is available, this should also be reviewed, Saar noted. Estonia's ten-year National Defense Development Plan defines which capabilities are due to be procured and according to what timeline. However, those plans were drawn up with a lower level of funding in mind.
"All these capabilities are defined there in advance, but defined according to different assumptions. Presumably, if additional resources are allocated to defense, we would most likely start to implement the same plans in advance. Of course, re-prioritizing things according to the new parameters and according to what can also now be delivered quicker," Saar said.
The view of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) on how the potential additional funds would be used is unknown as the EDF leadership has so far declined to discuss the issue with the press.
On Monday, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) said he wanted to raise Estonia's defense spending to five percent of GDP from 2026. This would mean a total of €2 billion a year, some €600 million more than currently outlined in the budget.
Michal has left the issue of how the additional defense spending would be covered, however, though there has been a suggestion that the funds could be borrowed.
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Editor: Huko Aaspõllu, Michael Cole