Ukrainian troops launched an incursion over the border into Russia's Kursk oblast, an area with deep historical significance and which also contains a nuclear power station, in late summer 2024.

Speaking at a press conference, Kesselmann said: "The Intelligence Center can confirm that the organized withdrawal of the Ukrainian contingent from the Kursk oblast is observable."

"At present, public information also states that the [Kursk oblast] city of Sudzha is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," he went on.

At the same time, Kesselmann said the Intelligence Center has no information that Russia has significantly increased its contingent in the Kursk direction in recent months. "The actions of the Ukrainian armed forces also indicate that a decision has been made by the leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces to withdraw troops from the direction of Kursk," he added.

Delaying battles are still ongoing in the region, to allow for the withdrawal of the Ukrainian units, Kesselmann said, while an accompanying and extensive Russian propaganda campaign is underway in the visible information space.

As for media speculation about whether the withdrawal from Kursk might be due to U.S. political pressure while the world waits to see what Russia will do in response to the 30-day ceasefire deal proposed by the Trump administration, Kesselmann said that the EDF had no information suggesting that.

In fact, the decision to withdraw may even have been made a long time before the deal was announced, Kesselmann added.

"Naturally, we are waiting for the Ukrainians' position on the matter, but undoubtedly, at least at the level of the Ukrainian armed forces' leadership, the relevant decision has been made. This decision was likely made a few days ago, if not weeks ago. And now this decision is being implemented," Kesselmann noted.

As for the remaining frontlines, Kesselmann said that significant military pressure from the Russian Federation continues in the Donetsk oblast and also in the direction of Pokrovsk, a transport hub which Russia has been trying to take since last summer.

Deep operations by both sides have been noteworthy over the past week, he added.

Nonetheless, Kursk is the most important area right now.

"The main and significant change, which may be influenced by geopolitics and politics, is the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk direction," Kesselmann concluded.

Developments in Kursk and elsewhere may represent a last-minute scramble for positioning ahead of the ceasefire coming into effect, if Russia accepts it.

Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire deal during talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, a country which also has skin in the game given the continued high price of oil it can sell worldwide versus the low price of Russian oil being sold to India and China.

While only 30 days in length, there is no reason why a ceasefire should not be extended, while this would also give Ukraine to dig in better fortifications and could lead to a shift in the balance of power in Ukraine's favor.

Russia on the other hand will have the dilemma of what to do with its troops – standing them down may cost a lot more financially in order to induce them or fresh troops to go to the front; offering attractive rates of pay having been the main way the Kremlin has motivated its own people to fight for it.

Much also hinges on the amount of military aid the U.S. would provide Ukraine if Russia does not agree to the ceasefire deal: If this, and also the threat of further sanctions, was seen by Kremlin as not a sufficiently significant amount to merit accepting the deal, it may not do.

Russia could also renege on the deal or even use "separatists" in Donbas to do the reneging for it, though since Russia has legally claimed those areas as being a part of the federation, it is not clear how these fighters could actually constitute separatists.

On August 6 last year Ukraine launched a significant offensive into the Kursk oblast, clashing with Russian forces and initially capturing around 1,000 square kilometers of territory.

The Ukrainian military aimed to disrupt Russian supply lines, damage their forces, and pressure the Russian government into peace negotiations.

This section of the front also saw North Korean troops in Russian service deployed.

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