While the roles of each country in NATO's new defense plans have been the subject of negotiations since last summer, the precise targets are due to be agreed upon at the next NATO summit this June. However, Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) has promised to provide an outline of his proposals to the government as soon as next week.

Social Democratic Party leader Lauri Läänemets, who until Tuesday morning was the minister of the interior, said that while the investments NATO wished to make would be spread over 20 years,  Russia will not wait. Läänemets added that Estonia's defense capabilities in some domains require an even larger contribution than the amount formulated by NATO planners.

"The most recent advice that the chief of the Defense Force staff provided to the government three weeks ago was [for Estonia] to develop its basic capabilities within three years. This means that in the first years – 2026 and 2027 – the additional expenditure should be over €1 billion," Läänemets said.

Defense spending would rise to six percent of GDP

This year, Estonia's defense spending will be around €1.4 billion, or 3.3 percent of GDP. According to the State Budget Strategy, Estonia's defense spending is expected to rise to over €1.6 billion next year, or almost 3.7 percent of GDP. From then on, the annual amount would remain more or less the same.

If €1 billion more than planned were to be spent on defense next year, this would mean an increase in defense spending to around 6 percent of GDP.

"The logic is that over a period of 20 years, it will average five percent of GDP per year. But the nature of the spending and the security situation means that in the first few years, it will be well above five percent," said Läänemets.

What exactly these most time-critical capability developments are, Läänemets did not say. However, he repeated the message that Estonia has to increase its ability to influence the adversary more profoundly, a message that has also previously been voiced publicly. The SDE leader re-emphasized something he had said three weeks ago – that any important investments must be brought forward.

"I would like to emphasize that, based on the advice of the chief of the Defense Forces, five percent is significantly less than we need," Läänemets said. "The warning has been made before that if the war in Ukraine ends or freezes, then the clock will start ticking. Now the clock has started ticking."

Läänemets: Faster ammo procurement was due to lack of funds

The current State Budget Strategy also takes into account last summer's decision to allocate €1.6 billion for the purchase of additional ammunition. Those plans are spread over a number of years, with the final payments due in 2031. Läänemets said that the purchase of ammunition would probably also have to be concentrated over the next three years. "And that will add another €500 million or so to that €1 billion," he said.

Last year, when the funding for ammunition was agreed upon, members of the government said that faster procurement was hampered by an overall shortage of ammunition as well as the defense industry's limited capacity. However, Läänemets now says the more hastily put-together plan was mainly due to a lack of money. He stressed that Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) was also in favor of raising defense spending.

"I have to admit that the minister of defense and I did a bit of work with the prime minister to push this ammunition purchase in because there was even less will to contribute to this purchase," said Läänemets.

However, this does not mean that buying large quantities of ammunition and weaponry is easy. The question of whether it is still possible to buy everything that is needed urgently within three years was not answered at the February meeting, according to Läänemets. He acknowledged that it is a tough challenge. All the more so since up to now Estonia has procured a significant proportion of its armaments from the U.S.

"A lot of European countries are now trying to diversify. That is, not procure everything from the United States, but maybe to obtain some things from South Korea, which has the same technology," he said.

"So, it doesn't depend on whether you get a license or who is at the controls there (in the U.S. – ed.)"

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur confirmed to ERR on March 5 that alternatives to the US-produced HIMARS are available. Pevkur stressed that each system has its pros and cons and that the supply chain for spare parts and training also needs to be taken into account when it comes to new systems.

"For each system, we have already assessed the pros and cons. Once I have presented the objectives to the government, final decisions will be made on which additional systems to purchase," Pevkur said.

Is defense spending part of the new coalition talks?

According to Läänemets, there was a feeling inside the government that defense spending has to be done much faster than planned. "Everybody understands that this situation is bad," he said.

In his view, the new government, comprising the Reform Party and Eesti 200, ought to make a decision in the near future regarding how to move forward with improving Estonia's defensive capabilities.

"I do not imagine this can be postponed until the fall. First of all, that would mean postponing it for half a year, when the commander of the Defense Forces stresses that we need to do this within three years so that deterrence against Russia will begin to take effect," Läänemets said.

The SDE leader also believes that the defense minister has to go to the NATO summit in June with a clear plan.

"So I assume that the debate on investing in defense should happen in parallel with the coalition agreement because it is connected to the budget," Läänemets said.

ERR requested a comment from the Estonian Defense Forces on Läänemets' ideas. The head of the Defense Forces said that he did not wish to comment publicly on the issue at this time.

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