The change, which followed the Social Democrats (SDE) being ejected from office at the start of the week over a fundamental difference of vision with Reform and Eesti 200, will also allow the latter party's rating, for many months now in the doldrums, to start to recover, Sildam argued.

As discussions unfold, some critics have accused Reform Party chair and Prime Minister Kristen Michal of expelling SDE for precisely ratings-boosting reasons, albeit Reform's in this case, rather than Eesti 200's.

On this, Sildam said that such an action would have been wholly rational for the prime minister and his party anyway.

Speaking to ERR politics webcast "Otse uudistemajast" Wednesday, Sildam said: "The prime minister has to now look at his party's rating, meaning its public trust."

"If that is low, then he must raise that trust. And one way to do that is to change coalition partners. In that sense, it is completely natural. I can even believe the Reform Party's rhetoric, in which they say they want to shift the government to the right, which can be interpreted as the Reform Party wanting to return 'home'," Sildam went on, referring to economic policy.

"Whether this does boost overall trust in the government remains to be seen," he added.

As the political landscape shifts and moves, the question arises whether Michal should take further steps to solidify his administration's position.

According to Sildam, Michal could even resign as prime minister and seek a new mandate for his new government from the Riigikogu, rather than carrying on as before, albeit without SDE and even with a new coalition agreement with Eesti 200.

Sildam said: "This is a new government, not just a case of replacing a few ministers. It has been stated that a new coalition agreement will also be created."

This potential restructuring would likely bring significant ministerial changes. Sildam predicted that the forthcoming government coalition will include some ministerial replacements beyond those which have already happened, while some positions may disappear or be merged.

"We will certainly be seeing this," Sildam said.

"For instance, a key question is: Who will the new Minister of the Interior be? Will it be [Reform's] Madis Timpson, or someone else? This also depends on the internal power dynamics of the Reform Party. Michal's clear choice was [Erkki] Keldo. I would say that he will continue in the government," Sildam went on.

Keldo is sitting economics affairs minister; Timpson was briefly justice minister April-July 2024.

The need for fresh figures in the government has also been a topic of discussion.

Sildam acknowledged the reasoning of political observer Ott Lumi LINK, who recently argued that the Reform Party should bring new faces into a new administration.

However, Sildam pointed out that it remains unclear what is actually happening within that party and how these decisions are being made.

Amid these changes, questions have emerged about the influence of key government officials.

Host Indrek Kiisler also asked about the role of State Secretary Keit Kasemets in forming the government coalition and negotiating agreements; some have claimed Kasemets played a key role in the expulsion of SDE.

Sildam said: "If [SDE chair and former Interior Minister Lauri] Läänemets says that Keit Kasemets is running the government, I would say that is not the case. He certainly has the full confidence of the prime minister. But knowing Kristen Michal, imagining that he would hand key levers of government power to someone else is a bit premature."

Kasemets heads up the government office.

Overall, the changes suggest a long-anticipated transformation in government, Sildam argued.

Internally, everything in the government had already been moving towards its dissolution in this way for about a month now, he added.

For Eesti 200, meanwhile, the shift represents a significant opportunity.

According to Sildam, Eesti 200 stands to gain the most from the current situation.

"Eesti 200 has the opportunity to make the most of this situation and increase its support. They can feel very secure in this coalition," he noted.

Furthermore, the party's leader, Education Minister Kristina Kallas, may take on a new strategic role.

Sildam considers it entirely feasible that this would be the new "internal opposition" in the new government coalition, a role previously held by SDE.
"I do believe so, she has all the prerequisites to do that," Sildam said.

"[She is] an extremely strong personality. Eesti 200 has definitely gained stronger leverage," he added.

Meanwhile, opposition party Isamaa faces a shifting political landscape.
According to Sildam, it would have been better for Isamaa if SDE had remained in the coalition, as they will now be competing with Isamaa in real opposition.

Looking ahead to this autumn's local elections, further political maneuvering and machinations are likely.

In Sildam's view, if the Reform -Eesti 200 coalition lives, an increase in support will come at Isamaa's expense.

Even so, discussions may start after the local elections on Isamaa potentially joining the government.

Isamaa has consistently topped the main three political polls conducted in Estonia for many months now, recently breaking the 30-percent mark and outstripping the entire (then) Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition combined.

Conversely, Eesti 200 had been polling well below the 5-percent threshold needed to win seats under Estonia's electoral system.

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