Lauri Läänemets commented on Sunday regarding the criticism directed at Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) by Kusti Salm, the former permanent secretary of the Ministry of Defense. He said the issue warrants significant public attention.

According to Läänemets, it is concerning that there is even a debate over whether ammunition has been ordered for Estonia or not.

"Such critical issues rarely arise out of nowhere. I don't know whether Salm or Pevkur is right, but both are speaking with certainty. Given how national defense decisions have been made in the government over the past year, the issue requires strong public scrutiny," Läänemets wrote on social media. He added that the government, when it still included the Social Democrats, made decisions based on the military advice of the commander of the Defense Forces and there was no doubt that action was needed.

Läänemets, however, noted that Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) has more influence over national defense decisions than Pevkur, as his primary goal is maintaining a balanced state budget.

"In Pevkur's defense, I will say that he takes his ministerial duties seriously and has ample experience in government-level leadership. However, some matters in national defense are beyond the defense minister's authority. That includes the Reform Party and the prime minister, for whom the persistent issue was that increasing the defense budget conflicted with efforts to balance the state budget," Läänemets explained.

"The €1.6 billion ammunition procurement did not fit within the four-year budget strategy period because the European Commission assessed Estonia's financial health based on it. I remember that a week before the state budget and budget strategy were decided, we in the Social Democrats made a last-ditch effort to propose that we ignore EU rules and make the necessary investments. This proposal was repeated multiple times earlier this year," he added.

Läänemets said that when forming the previous coalition agreement, the decision was ultimately based on budget rules and the Ministry of Defense's assertion that ammunition purchases needed to be spread out because everything could not be acquired at once. "That claim has since turned out to be only half true," Läänemets remarked.

"The Reform Party used to be known for maintaining a balanced state budget. That is something Michal longs for and considers crucial for improving the party's ratings. Therefore, public pressure must be maintained on the new government's plans, because you can't have both — a balanced state budget and adherence to the military advice of the Defense Forces commander," he wrote.

Läänemets pointed out that the military advice from the commander of the Defense Forces is based on updated NATO plans and the timeframe in which Russia will achieve military readiness to attack Estonia, should there be political will to do so. "In 2026 and 2027, we need to add €1 billion or slightly more to military defense each year. From then on, we must allocate an average of €300-400 million per year for the next two decades. The message from the EDF commander to the government a month ago was clear: crucial purchases and decisions must be made within the next three years. This means that the €1.6 billion ammunition procurement must be included in that timeframe," Läänemets explained.

"Among these proposals is a shift from one wave of mobilization to three, increasing the reserve army from 40,000 to up to 110,000 troops. These proposals do not require coalition negotiations but rather decisions for implementation. Time is of the essence," he added.

Läänemets noted that the new government is simultaneously reducing a significant portion of the defense tax, while the EU is currently relaxing budget rules for defense investments for only four years.

"State revenues are decreasing, EU budget rules will be reinstated in four years and Michal's efforts to showcase budget improvements do not align with this. This is the point where Michal must choose between improving party ratings and national defense. This is also the point where Hanno Pevkur needs support, as the party's stance is overriding him. We can provide that support through constructive public pressure. Let us ask questions and demand action," Läänemets wrote.

He suggested that Pevkur present the facts directly to the Riigikogu National Defense Committee regarding whether ammunition has been ordered or not. "The public needs certainty and clarity on this matter and the government must not lose its credibility when it comes to national security," he added.

On Sunday, Kusti Salm made a critical social media post, stating that not a single cent of the €1.6 billion allocated for ammunition had been spent.

"It is very difficult to stay silent after seeing the minister's remarks yesterday regarding the €1.6 billion ammunition procurement. The fact is that as of today, the defense minister has ordered zero euros' worth of ammunition despite the EDF commander's advice last fall, and in my view, this is completely irresponsible given the current situation. For Estonia, this is an absolutely existential issue," Salm wrote on social media.

"The minister also handles the argument of state secrecy far too lightly, as if it prevents him from discussing these matters. But instead of hiding necessary actions — what state secrecy is actually meant for — it is being used to conceal inaction. Unfortunately, I must point out that the defense minister's pattern remains exactly the same as last summer: an excess of words, but no concrete actions," he added.

Hanno Pevkur, in turn, dismissed Salm's criticism that none of the €1.6 billion allocated for ammunition purchases had been spent. "The fact is that the entire €1.6 billion has been allocated for orders and the exact timing of deliveries depends entirely on the manufacturers and how the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK) finalizes the specific procurement contracts," Pevkur told Delfi.

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