Kusti Salm wrote on social media that Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) has so far ordered zero euros' worth of ammunition the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) has said Estonia needs.

"For the past seven months, I have deliberately refrained from commenting on the defense minister's actions. However, it is very difficult to stay silent after seeing the minister's remarks yesterday regarding the €1.6 billion ammunition procurement. The fact is that as of today, the defense minister has ordered zero euros' worth of ammunition despite the EDF commander's advice last fall, and in my view, this is completely irresponsible given the current situation. For Estonia, this is an absolutely existential issue," Salm commented.

"The minister also handles the argument of state secrecy far too lightly, as if it prevents him from discussing these matters. But instead of hiding necessary actions — what state secrecy is actually meant for — it is being used to conceal inaction. Unfortunately, I must point out that the defense minister's pattern remains exactly the same as last summer: an excess of words, but no concrete actions," he added.

According to Salm, not a single cent from the €1.6 billion allocated for ammunition has been spent. "Delivery times are already long and every day of delay in signing contracts pushes back the date when ammunition will actually arrive. The only thing that has changed since the summer is that the security situation has deteriorated even further. The defense minister's actions are still focused on public image rather than achieving tangible military results," Salm stated.

Salm wrote that procurement terminology can be used to confuse people because the topic is complex, but in reality, the situation is much simpler. He highlighted three key terms in Estonia's ammunition procurement process.

"First, 'deliveries' — meaning ammunition that has actually arrived in warehouses. As of today, based on the EDF commander's recommendation, the figure is zero units from the €1.6 billion allocation. The second key term is 'procurement,' which refers to the process of buying weapons or equipment that we do not yet have or for which framework agreements have expired. So far, only one procurement from the €1.6 billion list has been initiated and even that will not result in a contract for several months. This single procurement is worth about €150 million — less than 10 percent of the ammunition needs — and it is still in the early stages," Salm explained.

"The third and most critical term in the current context is 'order,' meaning the issuance of a purchase order under an existing contract. This has not been done for a single item, which is absolutely irresponsible because it should take days, not seven months, and even now, there is no solution in sight," he added.

Salm pointed out that the definition of an order can be manipulated — one could argue that sending a purchase request constitutes an order — but without a formal contract, no manufacturer will start production.

"In procurement, household or business terminology, an order is only valid when the seller has agreed to sell. The price, delivery time and terms must be fixed. Without an actual purchase contract, no manufacturer will lift a finger. To put it in simple terms: merely selecting an item when visiting an online store is not an order. It only becomes an order once the purchase has been completed," he said.

Salm also refuted the defense minister's claim that an order has been placed for additional HIMARS ammunition. "That is misleading. In reality, only a Letter of Request (LOR) has been sent to the Americans — a formal inquiry asking whether we can buy the ammunition. Already last summer, it was clear that HIMARS delivery times and prices were too high and that we needed to consider alternatives. Nine months have passed since the request and we are still waiting for a response, yet no alternative procurement has been initiated, even though the EDF and the Center for Defense Investments (RKIK) have long since completed the necessary preparatory work," Salm wrote.

He noted that weapons could be delivered much faster than the current five-year estimate. "Through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system, the earliest delivery time is five years, meaning that even theoretically, we wouldn't receive the weapons before 2030. It has been known for years that there are alternatives worldwide with a delivery time of two to three years and at a lower cost. I won't even go into the latest developments regarding U.S. arms procurement," he explained.

Salm also criticized Pevkur's claim that an order for the PIORUN short-range air defense system was placed in November 2024. In reality, he said, only a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed, which merely initiated the procurement process. According to Salm, it will still take months to reach an actual contractual order and years for delivery.

"As a side note: This is the first time I have seen a defense minister publicly announce exactly how much money he has available before placing an order. This makes price negotiations extremely easy for suppliers, especially when there is only one bidder, as is the case here. I predict that we will end up paying several times more than for previous orders," he added.

Salm also pointed out that for both IRIS-T and MISTRAL, only a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been submitted, indicating that Estonia is interested in buying, but no actual purchase contract has been signed — meaning there is no obligation for the supplier to sell or deliver.

"This is a routine preparatory step in procurement and RFPs are often sent out even without a genuine intention to buy. Estonia already has contracts for both systems and placing orders under them should only take a few days. True, suppliers may have their hands full, but this is where the defense minister should step in, use his political influence and accelerate the process to finalize contracts," Salm stated.

He also called the minister's reference to "preparing" a 155mm artillery ammunition procurement misleading. According to Salm, Estonia already has contracts with nearly all major Western artillery ammunition manufacturers and placing an order at a pre-agreed price is merely a phone call away.

Salm stressed that the types of weapons mentioned above are "off-the-shelf" items that do not require modifications for Estonia and are compatible with existing weapon systems.

"The minister claims that more than €1.6 billion in orders have been placed. First, orders have been placed for zero euros. Second, a government official cannot confuse the value of framework agreements with the actual money allocated in the state budget. The defense minister cannot buy more than the funds allocated to him. I predict that the minister will now try to shift the blame onto RKIK and ministry officials. Estonia was one of the largest ammunition purchasers in Europe in 2022-2023 and one of the fastest in rearming, so this is certainly not due to incompetence or unwillingness," Salm wrote.

"Estonia's rapid armament is the most important task given today's security situation. The funds have been allocated, but there are no results," he added.

"The latest trick is the minister's most worn-out tactic: simply adding up numbers from procurements made years ago and presenting them as recent achievements (the claim that over €2.8 billion worth of ammunition has been ordered). In English, this is called 'the gift that keeps on giving.' In Estonian, the reality is that we have wasted more than half a year in a situation where every day matters. Reportedly, the same applies to the construction of the Baltic defense line," Salm concluded.

Kusti Salm resigned as permanent secretary of the Ministry of Defense at the end of August last year, citing Estonia's failure to make crucial decisions to increase its ammunition stockpiles. He had served as permanent secretary since May 17, 2021.

Salm is now the CEO of the defense technology company Frankenburg Technologies. The company's strategic advisor is former EDF commander Martin Herem and its board also includes, as another high-ranking former EDF member, Veiko-Vello Palm.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!