This summer, when six HIMARS systems manufactured at Lockheed Martin's factory in the U.S. arrive in Estonia, the country's defense capabilities will take a significant leap forward. For the first time, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) will be able to launch a 227-kilogram warhead up to 300 kilometers into the Russian rear.

Using the ATACMS missiles in question, Ukraine has destroyed enemy command centers, ammunition depots and air defense systems. Each missile costs around €1.5 million, but a well-targeted strike can have an impact worth hundreds of millions.

The only concern is that Lockheed Martin is allowed to sell Estonia a maximum of 18 such missiles. Meanwhile, the list of potential targets beyond the horizon is several times longer.

Munitions orders cap reached

In addition to ATACMS missiles, the U.S. Congress has approved the sale of 144 other missiles to Estonia. The exact types can be found on the websites of relevant government agencies.

Seventy-two of these missiles have a range of about 70 kilometers. Half of them carry warheads designed to destroy individual targets, such as radar stations or ammunition depots. The other half detonates in the air above enemy positions, dispersing approximately 150,000 small tungsten pellets — effective against enemy personnel and equipment.

Another 72 missiles can reach up to 150 kilometers. These are also divided into two types based on their intended use. Their key distinction from their shorter-range counterparts is a slightly more refined altimeter, which ensures a more precise detonation.

Magnus-Valdemar Saar, head of the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), stated that Congress's approval has now been formalized through contracts. "With one exception," Saar clarified. "There is one specific type of munition that we have not fully ordered, as the EDF does not currently deem it necessary."

Estonia aims to purchase additional launch systems and munitions. While there is some flexibility in acquiring the launchers, securing more munitions — especially ATACMS missiles — is a priority. From the €1.6 billion defense funding package approved last summer, the government is prepared to allocate up to €500 million for HIMARS missiles.

No word from the Pentagon

However, no contracts have been signed yet. This depends not only on Lockheed Martin's ability to sell the missiles but also on a political decision by the Pentagon and the U.S. Congress to approve the deal. Even if a decision is made, it does not guarantee that the munitions will arrive in Estonia in the coming years.

Last summer, when Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) met with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, he said he proposed several ways to expedite the delivery of munitions to Estonia. One of his suggestions was that the U.S. could supply Estonia with some of its own stockpiles, which could later be replenished with newly manufactured missiles. Pevkur recalled that Austin's response was nuanced. At the time, Estonia also submitted a formal request for a new munitions procurement. No response has been received to date.

"There have been indications that a decision might start moving forward, but the change in administration has meant that the Pentagon is undergoing a complete overhaul, down to department heads, which has delayed such responses somewhat," Pevkur said. "This has led us to conduct a market analysis to explore alternative options."

South Korean, Turkish and Israeli-European alternatives

Pevkur had already discussed possible alternatives last fall, as it was known even then that Lockheed Martin's production lines might not meet Estonia's expectations. Given the realities of wartime demand, supply is far outstripped by demand. Furthermore, the company is gradually transitioning from ATACMS production to manufacturing the more powerful PrSM missiles, which have a range of up to 500 kilometers. It remains unclear when these weapons will become available for export beyond the U.S.

The issue was briefly discussed at the government's security cabinet meeting on Tuesday, but according to Hanno Pevkur, a more in-depth discussion is needed. "And it must happen very soon. We don't have time to delay," he said.

According to RKIK head Magnus-Valdemar Saar, three potential suppliers remain in consideration. These include the Israeli-developed PULS system and its European counterpart, EURO-PULS, the MBRL system from Turkish company Roketsan and the K239 Chunmoo system from South Korean manufacturer Hanwha Aerospace.

Estonia also bought its SPGs from the Korean manufacturer

In January, during his visit to South Korea, Pevkur met not only with the acting defense minister but also with Hanwha Aerospace CEO Jae-Il Son. Estonia is already familiar with the company's headquarters, as Hanwha Aerospace is the source of the country's most powerful artillery — K9 self-propelled howitzers.

A month later, in an interview with Breaking Defense, Pevkur specifically mentioned the Chunmoo system as a potential alternative to HIMARS.

Poland was the first country to introduce a combined approach, integrating both HIMARS and Chunmoo systems. Initially, Poland intended to purchase 500 American rocket launchers, but after negotiations, the order was split, with systems being procured from both the U.S. and South Korea.

The first South Korean weapons customized for Poland, named Homar-K, arrived in the summer of 2023 — barely a year after Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak announced the negotiations.

Ramil Lipp, head of the armaments category at RKIK, highlighted the wide range of rockets available for the South Korean system. Hanwha Aerospace recently developed its own competitor to the American ATACMS missile. According to promotional materials, their CTM-290 missile can strike a nine-meter-wide target from a distance of 290 kilometers.

Hanwha's significant production capacity is another key factor. "And in terms of pricing, they are very competitive," Lipp added.

EURO-PULS wanted to fit HIMARS munitions in its barrels

The PULS (Precise & Universal Launching System), manufactured by Israeli company Elbit Systems, was developed by 2018. Four years later, the company partnered with the Franco-German firm KNDS to adapt the weapon system for the European market, resulting in the EURO-PULS project.

Elbit has also developed a variety of munitions, the most powerful of which is the Predator Hawk ballistic missile, capable of carrying a 140-kilogram warhead up to 300 kilometers.

The system is marketed for its ability to launch rockets from multiple manufacturers. According to the company, EURO-PULS can fire Norway's Kongsberg anti-ship missiles and the new MBDA cruise missile from Germany, which has a range of up to 500 kilometers.

"If they can integrate even more missile systems, it would certainly make the platform as a whole more attractive," said Ramil Lipp. However, he noted that South Korean manufacturers are following a similar path.

At defense exhibitions, the EURO-PULS system is presented as a next-generation technology that could rival HIMARS. While the American system can carry six missiles at a time, EURO-PULS can launch 12 missiles within 60 seconds. Furthermore, the developers reportedly sought to adapt their system to accommodate U.S. Lockheed Martin munitions — an idea that was quickly shut down by the Americans. "Clearly, Lockheed has no interest in allowing another platform to fire its missiles," Lipp noted.

Since the EURO-PULS project is still relatively new, it carries the most uncertainty. Germany has announced plans to acquire six launchers from the project, but full-scale production capability is still being set up.

"For now, they still rely heavily on the original PULS system," Lipp explained. The system's current user base stretches from the Netherlands to Azerbaijan.

Logistics could be Turkish company's Achilles' heel

The Turkish-made system does not lag behind its competitors in terms of technical specifications. The MBRL (Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher), produced at Roketsan's factory, has such a generic name that in Estonia, it is simply referred to as "Khan."

Khan is actually the manufacturer's most powerful missile, with a range of 280 kilometers. According to Roketsan, it can carry a 470-kilogram warhead.

However, one downside of Roketsan's offer is that only Turkey itself uses this system among NATO countries. The issue is not a lack of trust in Turkish-made equipment — after all, Estonia's second brigade is receiving new armored vehicles from Turkey — but rather logistical challenges.

Missile systems require constant maintenance and spare parts. Additionally, there may be an urgent need to procure more ammunition, and if the nearest storage facilities are thousands of kilometers away, logistics become costly. Moreover, these systems are acquired for times of crisis, when supply chains are already likely to be disrupted.

In this regard, EURO-PULS could have an advantage, as production is planned to be established in Germany. However, as Lipp pointed out, the company is still in its early stages and remains more Israeli than European at this point.

South Korea's Chunmoo system is assembled 7,000 kilometers from Estonia, but Estonia already has an established partnership with the manufacturer. Additionally, Poland's large-scale purchase of Chunmoo systems provides further reassurance.

"This rather gives us confidence that in terms of life-cycle support, logistics will move closer to us," Lipp noted.

All manufacturers offer deliveries in two to four years

Ramil Lipp stated that, from a technical perspective, the three alternatives are fairly equal. The next factors to consider are price and delivery time. Moreover, the operational and ammunition costs of these systems are nearly as important as the initial purchase price.

Lipp confirmed that the Estonian Center for Defense Investments has indicative cost estimates, but these will not be disclosed before substantive negotiations begin. The delivery timelines proposed by the manufacturers range between two and four years.

Hanno Pevkur highlighted another key aspect: given the high price tag of the decision, foreign and security policy considerations must also play a role. For example, Estonia selected Caesar self-propelled howitzers partly to strengthen ties between Estonia and France.

Additionally, it is important to determine whether European Union funding can be used for acquiring weapons and ammunition. "Perhaps the conditions specify that if you use this money, you can only purchase a European system," Pevkur said, referring to the EU defense loan proposals currently under discussion.

We must weigh speed against allied relations

Before choosing a new missile system, the government must first decide whether to acquire an alternative platform at all instead of waiting for HIMARS. Pevkur reiterated that the government must discuss the issue soon.

"We don't have time to wait," the defense minister stated. "That's why this fundamental decision needs to be made. But we also need some indication from the Pentagon."

Pevkur explained that Estonia is in constant dialogue with Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of HIMARS. According to him, company representatives have been offering Estonia hints on how to engage with the U.S. administration.

However, even they emphasize that decisions regarding the sale and delivery schedule of weapons and munitions to Estonia are not up to the company. "In the end, purchasing an American system means that both Congress and the Pentagon must approve it."

Former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm warned against waiting indefinitely for a U.S. response.

"We have an urgent security problem, which has also impacted Estonia's investment climate. This is an issue that must be resolved and the solution comes only when the deliveries have actually been made," Salm stressed.

At the same time, there are several arguments for sticking with HIMARS, even if it means waiting a bit longer. Having two different systems would require separate logistical chains for maintenance and ammunition supply. It would also demand separate training, and the EDF does not have excess personnel.

Additionally, Estonia's previous HIMARS procurement showed that financial support from the U.S. may be available for purchasing American-made weapons and munitions. And, once again, foreign and security policy considerations must not be overlooked.

"We must weigh speed on one side and alliances on the other," Pevkur stated. "I also asked the foreign minister today to get his ministry involved so that we can present a unified position in the cabinet," he added on Tuesday.

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