First, former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm and former Commander of the Defense Forces Martin Herem must explain why, in 2021, 2.6 percent of GDP was initially deemed sufficient not only for Estonia's defense but for the entire region's security against a threat that, in its nature, has remained unchanged since the restoration of independence.

In February 2022, the war in Ukraine intensified, escalating into a conventional war. As a result, the government allocated four additional funding packages to strengthen defense capabilities. On April 18, 2024, the former commander of the Defense Forces stated at the Academy of Sciences that in the event of war, Estonia would emerge victorious, promising to destroy the enemy in Ivangorod, Pechory or somewhere in that vicinity. He added that such a victory could be ugly.

A few months later, as he was leaving office, the EDF commander presented a recommendation requesting an additional €3.2 billion, of which €1.6 billion was deemed essential. (Estonia's defense spending is now on track to exceed 5 percent of GDP — ed.) The outgoing permanent secretary seconded this request. Both are now moving on to promote the arms industry. As a side note, no one disputes the necessity of striking the enemy on their own territory — this is a fundamental element of maneuver warfare.

The core issue is not the sums of money but rather the significant margin of error made by the same planners and decision-makers — one that falls outside the boundaries of acceptable management by any standard.

At its core, this reflects erratic planning, the root causes of which trace back to 2012, when a significant shift occurred in the Ministry of Defense's governance paradigm, transitioning from capability-based planning to resource-based planning. Among the components of combat effectiveness, all attention was directed toward the physical component, neglecting the development of moral and conceptual aspects. This stifled the command logic and structure inherent to the armed forces, gradually transforming it into something resembling a civilian bureaucracy.

For example, during the immediate feedback meeting following the 2018 Siil (Hedgehog) military exercise, the then-commander of the infantry brigade (who later became chief of the EDF Headquarters) told an international audience, including generals from other countries: "I know that the principle 'train as you fight' is one of the key factors for success, but achieving it is difficult. Therefore, we fight as we train."

At first, this may have seemed like a slip of the tongue, but subsequent developments revealed it to be a deliberate approach. In military affairs, such a mindset creates an illusion of success and progress while disregarding both enemy and allied advancements. It also hampers adaptation to trends in warfare, force development and capability enhancement. The intensified combat in Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated clearly that this approach was flawed, and now its consequences must be urgently rectified.

Another crucial question is why an arms dealer needs to discuss Estonia's ammunition stockpiles through the media.

It would be naive to think that raising this issue during a government reshuffle is a coincidence. The motive could have been an attempt to influence ministerial appointments, procurement processes, dissatisfaction with the amount of state aid allocated to a company or even personal grievances.

Likewise, the demand for the minister to disclose contracts is absurd — enemy intelligence must do its own work; we should not make their job easier. As for these contracts, their contents and decision-making logic are overseen by both the [Riigikogu] National Defense Committee and the responsible agencies.

The conditions for moving forward are promising. Strategic leadership has been restored within the ministry. The commander of the Defense Forces has a clear vision and, through his words and actions, has reassured that valuing people is once again a priority. The work environment and organizational culture have improved.

Additionally, a newly appointed permanent secretary understands society, has no ties to any arms industry companies and has direct experience from Ukraine. The defense minister can articulate Estonia's positions in the international arena and is an equal partner to allied counterparts.

Recent changes in the Ministry of Defense provide confidence that fundamental national defense questions are being addressed: What kind of war threatens us? How should we prepare for it? How do we win it? How do we prevent it?

This offers hope that we will reach the situation described by the military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

In the current tense geopolitical environment, it is crucial to ensure that strategic-level leaders in the defense sector have the necessary working conditions and support to act with purpose, avoiding domestic political struggles at the expense of national defense. Arms dealers who have no role in shaping national defense should not interfere in the affairs of the ministry.

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