Former official: Europe facing critical defense choices amid US policy shift

Estonia and Europe are likely to soon have to make the most important security-related decisions of this generation, former Ministry of Defense Secretary General Kusti Salm said.
The current diplomatic developments involving the Trump administration in the U.S. are part of a strategic game to pressure Ukraine, he added. He noted that in his view the strategy appears to be having an impact.
At the same time, the U.S. decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine makes the situation a highly serious one.
Speaking to "Esimene stuudio," Salm said: "I would love to be able to say, 'let's wait and see, the morning is wiser than the evening, so let's keep a cool head and a clear mind.' But the reality is that the situation is especially serious. Ukrainian, European and Estonian security have never been in such a grave situation over the past three years."
"Over the past three years, quarter-by-quarter, year-on-year, our security has worsened here, even as Estonia has taken significant steps. Europe has made groundbreaking decisions. But this disease continues to spread. So the treatment must get increasingly stronger," he went on.
For Kyiv: "These are without a doubt extremely tough days," Salm added. "In Estonia and across Europe, decisions will have to be made in the coming months and weeks. These may be the most important of this generation."
Salm stated that the suspension of U.S. aid to Ukraine impacts all weaponry. While Ukraine can temporarily fill the gap with its own production and foreign weapons, it will become harder over time. This is especially true in replacing intelligence, logistics, long-range weapons, artillery, and armor, with Europe still holding back some weapons, such as Germany's Taurus missiles.
The former secretary general also said that calculations show if all of Europe contributed to helping Ukraine, regardless of what the U.S. does, the cost would not be excessive. He put the figure at €120 billion a year. That's just €16 per month per person, which he said was a small price to pay for peace.
Salm stated that the U.S. has been waiting for Europe to increase defense contributions for over 10 years. Europe spends only 1.5 percent compared to the U.S.' 3.5 percent. He explained that the issue isn't U.S. unwillingness but Europe's failure to invest more in defense. This has been the case despite policies like former U.S. President Barack Obama's reset policy aiming for an agreement.
While the Trump administration's claim is that U.S. spending on Ukraine has been far higher than Europe's, stretching up to US$350 billion as of the end of last year, some fact-checkers have found no evidence to back this figure up. Some estimates put Europe's spending higher, at US$138.7 billion, compared to America's US$119.7 billion, between the start of the full-scale invasion and the end of 2024.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: 'Esimene stuudio,' interviewer Liisu Lass.