"The most significant signal from the meeting in Saudi Arabia was that the U.S. and Ukraine reached a ceasefire of their own after a very turbulent past 1.5 months. For the first time, we are hearing that they seem to be in agreement on something," Meelis Oidsalu said on "Terevisioon."

However, he noted that it remains unclear what was demanded of Ukraine during the eight-hour negotiations. "We don't know whether these demands included, for example, a faster withdrawal from Kursk, which could somehow facilitate further negotiations," Oidsalu remarked.

At present, U.S. President Donald Trump is awaiting a response from Russian leader Vladimir Putin on whether he agrees to the 30-day ceasefire that U.S. and Ukrainian representatives negotiated in Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accepted it as a first step toward peace talks.

Oidsalu acknowledged that a ceasefire benefits the side that wants to continue the war and has the capacity to reinforce its forces during the truce — something Russia is more capable of doing.

"From a military-strategic standpoint, the Russians might have a motive to agree to a ceasefire, as it would allow them to better prepare for a summer offensive. The situation is complex and multi-faceted for Moscow, making it difficult to predict what their final response will be."

Oidsalu also emphasized the importance of how the 30-day ceasefire would contribute to preparing a final peace agreement. "It's clear that both sides would use this period to significantly strengthen their frontline positions. This ceasefire in itself will not bring peace or a reduction in hostilities."

If Russia does come to the negotiating table, Oidsalu believes it is unlikely to back down from its original major objectives. "At least rhetorically, they will stick to their demands to 'denazify' and 'demilitarize' Ukraine. We should take this seriously because the past three years have shown that they are actually pursuing or at least attempting to pursue these goals," he noted.

"Ultimately, any ceasefire is a tactical move, and they must assess how much they need to restore their forces. The troops in Donbas are quite exhausted and do need time to recover."

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