Economist: Effects of Trump trade war not initially felt in Estonia

The effects of the trade war initiated by the United States under Donald Trump are still modest so far as Estonia's economy goes, but could become more significant if overall confidence in foreign trade declines, according to one expert.
Speaking to "Aktuaalne Kaamera," Kaspar Oja, an economist with the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank), said: "I think that for now, these effects are still quite modest."
"If we consider how large a share these [protected] goods have in total trade or how much they directly affect us, then these effects are not very significant," Oja went on.
"However, I think bigger issues will arise if more such restrictions are introduced. If countries start imposing them competitively, and overall trust in foreign trade diminishes, then this will affect us much more, because we are a small open economy," he continued.
Estonia is, Oja said, by nature a free-trade oriented country. "We depend on the ability to trade freely and to export goods worldwide without any restrictions."
As for the rationale in the U.S. imposing tariffs at this time, Oja said a mercantilist approach, focusing on achieving a surplus in the trade balance, seems to be the central aim.
Other factors include a desire to bring certain industries back to the U.S., a shift in labor from high- to low-productivity sectors, and that while the U.S. continues to export knowledge-intensive goods, it will be imposing tariffs on simpler goods. An analytical observation rather than a primary reason for the policies discussed.

Ultimately, no one wins a tit-for-tat trade war in the long term, including the U.S., Oja said, as fewer and less efficient transactions will take place as a result.
Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from around the world have come into effect in the U.S. Both the EU and Canada have already announced countermeasures. Donald Trump had already imposed tariffs, most notably on China, during his first administration, 2016-2020.
Trump resumed this line on entering office again in January this year, hiking pre-existing tariffs on Chinese goods to 20 percent and also this time around targeting the U.S.' immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico, with 25 percent tariffs on many goods, and 10 percent on Canadian energy.
His rationale for doing so relates to the art of the deal and of retaliating against countries he accuses of "ripping off" the U.S. The relevant U.S. legislation enabling tariffs is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
EU member states and some other countries have begun proactive negotiations with Trump to head off additional potential tariffs. In February, Trump began announcing tariffs that would apply globally, and a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum products from all countries took effect yesterday, March 12.
In terms of reciprocal tariffs, for individual states, while both "sides" imposing tariffs on each other is less preferable to both sides having free trade with each other, tariffs both ways are better than one country pursuing protectionism and the trading partner not doing so.
One claim made about the U.S. specifically is that high tariffs, up to 60 percent, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries were instrumental in the country transforming into a great power, subsequently the major world power, just as it was the most protectionist country worldwide.
The depression era and World War Two saw a diminishing of tariffs on this scale, but the policy remained viable – not only did the George W. Bush administration implement tariffs on Chinese steel in 2002, but even the Barack Obama administration implemented tariffs on China, in this case on tires, 2009 -2012, to avoid the dumping of these products on the market.
Critics say these latter measures either exerted no discernible effect on the U.S. economy or even harmed it.
Estonia's main exports currently are electrical equipment, timber, wood and items made of wood, agricultural products and food preparations, which all together count for around 40 percent of total exports.
The main export destinations are the nearby countries of Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany and Sweden, which together account for around half the total.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera'