Estonia's presidents are not elected directly by the people but rather by the Riigikogu, meaning cross-party support is vital when looking for a strong candidate.

Social Democratic Party (SDE) MP said that a second term for Karis, or a first term for Ansip, had been mentioned, with Madise an implied outsider candidate at this stage too.

The MP added he is not aware of whether the Reform-Eesti 200 coalition has discussed a potential joint presidential candidate yet, but noted that informal talk and speculation about various possible presidential candidates have been taking place in the corridors of the Riigikogu.

Much of this is just that, chat, so far, he added.

He said: "I believe that its impact on the presidential election may not necessarily be all that significant, because in order to elect a president in the Riigikogu, a cross-coalition agreement between parties is needed anyway."

"In other words, the decisive factor in the presidential election is the candidate themselves — whether there is a candidate who can gather enough support from Riigikogu members," Kaljulaid went on.

"It can certainly be stated, naturally, that MPs, especially those who have been in politics for a long time, see that this is an issue that is getting more imminent. Also, of course, there has been speculation on whether the current president, who is serving his first term, wishes to seek a second term. Some believe he does not, while others think it is rare for a president to not want to stay for a second term," Kaljulaid continued.

Heads of state in Estonia are limited to two consecutive terms, though more than two non-consecutive terms are permissible under the Constitution.

Kaljulaid also hinted that discussions have included Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise.

"There are also heads of constitutional institutions who have held their offices for a long time and might potentially be considering their next challenges. I might not mention specific names, but there aren't all that many constitutional institutions in our country," the SDE MP went on.

"During the background conversations, a few other names have also been mentioned, in speculation. For example, although I do not exactly recall whether Andrus Ansip has ruled it out or not, his name comes up often. He was prime minister for a long time, a well-known politician, and is still at an age where he could take part in active politics. Despite having seemingly stepped away from active politics, he is still highly visible and frequently gives interviews. He has been talked about as one of the potential individuals who might be interested in this position," Kaljulaid continued.

ERR also asked Kaljulaid whether Reform and Eesti 200 might now have a harder time securing support for their candidate after expelling his party from office, at the start of this week.

Kaljulaid downplayed this.

"This has happened in the past. While whether the Reform Party and Eesti 200 are discussing this matter now is not known, and in any case, electing a president in the Riigikogu requires a broader agreement than the current coalition's votes can provide. Ultimately, the most crucial factor is the candidate's personality," Kaljulaid reiterated.

This would mostly be the case with non-partisan candidates.

He mentioned that if, for example, a government party wants to propose a candidate affiliated with their party, the current government would find it more difficult, as their parliamentary support base is very small, and relations with opposition parties are complicated.

Estonia's presidential elections take place over three run-off rounds at the Riigikogu where needed and when there are enough candidates, with a two-thirds majority needed at the 101-seat chamber. If this draws a blank, a vote is held at a regional electoral college, which convenes in Tallinn and includes up to 10 members of each of Estonia's 79 municipalities, at least one of whom must be an elected official. If this is unsuccessful too, the vote passes to the Riigikogu council of elders, namely the speaker, their two deputies, and the heads of each party group.

While in the past presidential elections have seen multiple candidates running, 2021's was a much quieter affair.

That year, Alar Karis became president after running unopposed, obtaining the necessary majority on the second vote and following a long search for a suitable candidate.

In 2016, Kersti Kaljulaid became president at the final stage, voted in by the council of elders after Riigikogu and electoral college ballots had proved inconclusive.

Since the restoration of independence in 1991, two presidents, Lennart Meri and Toomas Hendrik Ilves, have served two consecutive terms.

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