Record budget revenue driven by preemptive profit distribution, tax hike

This January, the Estonian Tax and Customs Board (MTA) collected €1.44 billion in tax revenue, up 26.5 percent on year. This increase in tax revenue was driven primarily by corporate income tax on distributed profits, which reached record levels.
The corporate income tax collected in January amounted to a record €355 million, representing a 185 percent increase on year.
"Before the tax rate increase, private-sector companies distributed profits in December at a lower tax rate, income tax on which was collected in January," the Ministry of Finance reported Monday. "The majority of this was profit distributed at the 20 percent tax rate."
By economic sector, the largest contributions to the income tax from distributed profits in January came from financial and insurance activities (€57 million), information and communication (€52 million), professional, scientific and technical activities (€46 million), trade (€45 million) and manufacturing (€40 million).
The State Forest Management Center (RMK) contributed nearly €25 million in income tax from distributed profits.
The rise in the income tax rate also affected the growth of the wage fund — some companies paid out December wages in December already.
"Data from the employment register shows that the number of jobs did not decline, but the number of tax returns without wages increased," the ministry noted. "This also impacted the payment of the social tax in January, where growth remained below 5 percent."
Compared to 2024, the number of jobs increased the most in the healthcare sector, while the largest decreases were seen in manufacturing and retail.
Personal income tax revenue to the state budget went up in January, positively influenced not only by the growth in the wage fund, but also by individuals surpassing the tax-free income threshold.
The revenue from personal income tax collected by local governments continues to grow significantly faster than social tax, mainly due to changes in the distribution of pension-related personal income tax between the state and local governments.
VAT, excise duty receipts varied
The growth in value added tax (VAT) was supported by moderate economic developments, but less VAT was collected from vehicle sales in January than usual, as cars were purchased in advance at the end of last year.
January's VAT receipts were also impacted by a warmer winter and significantly lower electricity market prices, leading to a decrease in sector turnover and tax payments compared to the same month last year.
"Although consumers are cautious in their spending behavior, retail trade turnover grew by 3 percent in January, which is the largest increase in the past two years," the Finance Ministry noted. "Cross-border e-commerce VAT receipts increased sharply at the beginning of the year (more than 50 percent), reaching nearly 10 percent of total VAT revenue."
By economic sector, the increase in VAT receipts in January was led by construction, which experienced noticeable growth in activity and a significant rise in sales turnover on year.
Alcohol excise duty receipts, meanwhile, were lower compared to January 2024, while tobacco and fuel excise duty receipts were higher on year. Lower alcohol excise duty receipts were due to large-scale stockpiling at the end of 2024, with the January drop to follow resulting from the realization of these stocks.
January's fuel excise duty receipts were up on year, with the largest impact attributable to the increased declarations of motor fuels. Diesel declarations were up 20 percent this January, while gasoline declarations were down 10 percent. Consumption continues to be supported by the lower retail price of diesel fuel.
Tobacco excise duty receipts increased by 29.4 percent on year in January, due primarily to the introduction of new tax stamps. As no stock realization occurred that month, this increase is likely temporary and does not signal a long-term positive trend.
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Editor: Aili Vahtla