Estonia's largest peat production area is located in Pärnu County. Of all the peat produced in Estonia, 98 percent is horticultural peat, most of which is exported. However, peat producers face a problem: from an environmental emissions perspective, peat is still treated as if it were being used for fuel.

"Put simply, today's peat or emissions statistics show that peat becomes an emission into the atmosphere the moment it's mined — but that's clearly not the case. Anyone can see that in the morning, if they have potted flowers on the windowsill, the flower, the peat and the pot are all still there. The peat hasn't gone anywhere," said Jüri Tiidermann, chairman of the Estonian Peat Association.

According to Tiidermann, the peat industry is blamed for 10 percent of Estonia's total greenhouse gas emissions and the climate targets that have been set essentially spell the end of the sector.

"The current calculation method is completely flawed. But instead of fixing it, a decision was made that emissions must drop 10 percent by 2030. By 2040, production should be cut in half, and that means half the companies in the industry will have shut down," Tiidermann said.

The Ministry of Climate, however, believes the goals are achievable.

"The emission reduction targets are entirely reasonable and realistic. Essentially, it means we shouldn't mine peat only to export it without adding value," said Kristi Klaas, deputy secretary general for green reform at the Ministry of Climate.

According to the Peat Association, at least 70 percent of last year's production was value-added peat. The ministry says Estonia uses the same emissions calculation methodology as other countries.

"The logic behind calculating emissions is twofold. First, it accounts for the emissions from mined-out areas — how much carbon dioxide they release. Second, it looks at how the peat is used after it's been extracted. The only country that doesn't follow this approach is Sweden, which has spent decades conducting thorough research and field trials to understand how peat actually decomposes," Klaas explained.

Estonia has now taken a step in that direction. With funding from the Environmental Investment Center and at the initiative of the Peat Association, scientists studied how carbon behaves in peat used for plant cultivation.

"Our study shows that when peat is used directly in horticulture, its use period is very short and decomposition is minimal. For plants with longer life cycles, decomposition can reach 6-7 percent, but on average, only about 2 percent of the carbon in horticultural peat breaks down," said Ain Kull, associate professor of physical geography at the University of Tartu.

"Statistically, we currently count 100 percent of the carbon as an emission the year it's mined, but in reality, 98 percent of that carbon is still intact," Tiidermann noted.

According to Professor Kull, most peat decomposition happens later during reuse, such as in composting or when mixed into soil. Some of the peat, however, never fully decomposes. "A large portion of the carbon actually enters circulation in other sectors and never fully breaks down. When all factors are considered, only about 70 percent is released, while 30 percent remains and adds to soil carbon stores," he said.

Kull believes the study could serve as a basis for recalculating actual carbon emissions, since the current calculation model is outdated. Still, he acknowledges that overhauling the system is no simple task.

"There are relatively few peat producers worldwide. Most users don't mine their own peat and have little incentive to push for changes. International agreements require consensus from all parties, so it's often easier to stick with the old, simple method. And, of course, figuring out exactly how and where the carbon from peat goes is extremely complex — there are only a handful of studies on this in the world," Kull said.

The ministry is not in a hurry to make changes. However, Klaas admitted that the study sets a direction.

"We must base our decisions on scientifically verified data, but as the Peat Association also pointed out, this was a pilot study and no field trials have yet been conducted," Klaas said.

According to Tiidermann, the state should develop the proper methodology.

"This is a national responsibility and it should be addressed by our officials at the Ministry of Climate — not by writing this sector off. The industry's turnover has grown by nearly 70 percent over the past three years, which once again begs the question: dear civil servants, what exactly are we doing?" Tiidermann said.

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