Jüri Tiidermann: Green transition at risk of manifesting as a right turn instead

Estonia's new challenges demand grounded policies based on a strong economy and proven solutions — not capabilities that may or may not materialize by 2030, writes Jüri Tiidermann.
The Riigikogu is currently considering the primary legislative proposal regulating Estonia's economic policy — the draft law on a climate-resilient economy. Even before the current legislative session began, statements by politicians indicated that the ruling coalition is pushing to finalize this legislation.
I dare question whether further burdening Estonia's already struggling economy in the name of climate goals will garner broad public support. There are numerous signs across the country suggesting otherwise, such as public protests against onshore wind turbines in nearly 30 municipalities.
Projects promising to deliver the "electricity price relief" long-awaited by Estonia and its industries lack popular support and opposition intensified in December, escalating into a full-blown conflict by January. Estonians have literally started leaving their homes to protest against an alien worldview imposed upon them.
Meanwhile, encouraging and protective messages are being directed toward traditional sectors listed as restricted in the climate law, such as forestry, oil shale and peat industries. This situation should, in theory, help the ruling coalition set its priorities: a strong Estonian economy or saving the climate?
Seeing how this controversial bill is progressing toward approval, I propose an idea that might help bring clarity to society. Instead of endlessly debating the social and economic impacts of an inadequately studied draft law, perhaps it would be more reasonable to calculate the potential fines from the European Union and compare those to the added value generated by the restricted industries.
On one side of the equation, we would have jobs, a free economy and restored investor confidence. On the other, the sum we would need to pay the EU in fines. Perhaps the added value generated by Estonian industries would far exceed the one-time payment and prove better for the future. As a business owner, I would prioritize hard numbers when making such critical and strategic decisions.
Let's also consider the fact that many EU countries are unlikely to meet their significant climate commitments, making both the fines and their principles of determination, enforcement and timelines uncertain. Under such conditions, there's no need to rush to cripple our economy.
In December, I attended a Riigikogu meeting with other industry representatives. We all tried to explain the consequences of political decisions for our companies. Each of us represents dozens or hundreds of employees, often our life's work. Yet, this did not affect the outcomes. That same month, Estonia took on additional obligations requiring a 90 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2040.
The decision was not held back even by the fact we had already struggled to meet the 2030 targets. As one Riigikogu member aptly put it at the same meeting, "We're now all collectively stuck in the LULUCF position." It seems highly likely that by 2040, we'll all be in yet another undefined position if officials and politicians do not stop this festival of commitments for Estonia's economy.
I want to remind the Riigikogu, referencing our meeting last year, that they represent the people of Estonia, not their own political interests. Our country's new challenges demand grounded policies based on a strong economy and proven solutions — not capabilities that may or may not materialize by 2030. We can no longer afford to pin our hopes on "future green technologies."
If, however, the Riigikogu and government consider defense and economic challenges secondary to lofty climate protection goals, it will serve as a litmus test of how disconnected politicians are from the current situation. In the upcoming elections, we may see a shift to the right instead of a green transformation, a trend already visible in the U.S., Austria and Germany. Could this finally be a signal that politicians choose to hear?
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Editor: Marcus Turovski