Estonia likely to spend tens of millions of euros on emissions units
Estonia will not be able to meet the climate target agreed upon for the forestry and land use sector for the years 2021-2025 and will therefore likely have to purchase greenhouse gas emission allowances worth tens of millions of euros.
The moment of truth will come in 2027, when the fulfillment of commitments to reduce greenhouse gases for the period 2021-2025 will be assessed. Estonia is unlikely to meet these obligations in forestry and agricultural land management as stipulated under LULUCF.
"If we look at the period 2021-2025, the achievement of targets is measured against historical emission levels — how we have historically managed our forest land, agricultural land and grasslands. The reason is that, compared to historical emissions and management practices, the intensity has increased and there is actually nothing that can be done about it. This means that, yes, it is likely that we will not meet this target in 2027. At the moment, there is also no particularly effective short-term measure to reduce it," said Janika Laht, LULUCF coordinator at the Estonian Environment Agency.
This will result in financial obligations, meaning the need to purchase additional emission allowances, which could potentially be offset by surplus allowances from other sectors.
"The entire accounting is done on paper, so if we fail to meet the target in one sector, it is possible to transfer and use allowances from another sector," Laht explained.
In other sectors not covered by LULUCF, Estonia has largely met its obligations.
"Emissions have dropped significantly. Without the LULUCF sector — excluding forestry — by 23 percent, and with forestry and land use included, by 9 percent. That's quite a significant reduction," said Cris-Tiina Pärn, inventory coordinator at the Estonian Environmental Research Center.
"Although the energy sector has the largest share of emissions, a very positive trend can be seen in the reduction of emissions from this sector. We observe that over the years, as the share of renewable energy in total electricity production increases, emission levels also decrease," said Kristi Klaas, deputy secretary general at the Ministry of Climate.
The issues in forestry largely stem from the age of Estonia's forests.
"Due to historical factors, our forests are quite old. About 40 percent of forest stands are over 60 years old, which means they need to be managed. And if we want to ensure additional annual carbon sequestration, we would naturally need younger, fast-growing forests," Laht noted.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Marko Tooming
