The infamous verbal showdown in the Oval Office had at least one refreshing outcome: the filters are off. People are speaking plainly. Peace in Ukraine matters to America, yes — but so do Ukraine's mineral resources. Because without raw materials, there's no industry; without industry, there's no economy; and without an economy, a country and its people cannot thrive.

It's clear that the stark, black-and-white text from the Oval Office has finally jolted Europe into a sense of unity. Security seems, after three years of war, to have truly become a priority. Unprecedented sums have been allocated to the defense industry. Work is underway.

In Estonia and elsewhere in Europe, defense funds and industrial parks are being established. New factories are being launched to double the pace of missile, drone, radar, armored vehicle and explosive production — and much more. The war in Ukraine has given the sector such momentum that even Estonia's defense and space industry association raised its forecasts last year. It now believes that by 2030, its sector's turnover will not be the previously forecast €1 billion, but twice that.

Realizing this plan would bring Estonia jobs, investments and tax revenue — not to mention a sense of security that we can actually defend ourselves. However, it's worth noting that producing single-use items like missiles, drones and ammunition doesn't boost the real economy. For the real economy to grow, we must invest heavily in primary production that can elevate European manufacturing to a world-class level.

But fine — let's start by cranking up the defense industry, since the freedom and values of the Western world are at stake. Unfortunately, we face one problem that leads us back in a vicious circle to why peace is being pushed on Ukraine, along with a minerals agreement.

Raw materials are especially crucial for the defense industry. And when it comes to raw materials, the Western world is in a tough spot. This shouldn't come as news: since 2011, the European Union has maintained a list of critical raw materials. In 2011, that list included 14 materials; by 2023, it had grown to 34. For what it's worth, the U.S. situation is even more dire: it has 50 elements on its critical materials list — essential for making cars, chips, phones, missiles and everything else around us.

The EU's critical raw materials list includes magnesium, silicon and aluminum — irreplaceable in defense manufacturing for making lightweight, durable alloys used in components from drones to missiles. Yet despite the wider industrial need, the EU hasn't produced any magnesium since the early 2000s. That's because cheap Chinese imports drove local factories out of business. It was cheaper to import — and still is.

As a result, we're nearly entirely dependent on imports — frankly, on China, which controls the vast majority of global magnesium production. We've already felt what that kind of control means: in 2021, during the energy crisis, China raised magnesium prices five- to sevenfold. Car manufacturers across Europe and beyond cut production, deliveries were delayed and headlines warned that the shortage could shut down European manufacturing entirely within months. Germany, with its auto industry in the jaws of the crisis, raised the alarm all the way to Brussels.

Has anything changed in Europe in four years? Since China's market price for magnesium has returned to a stable level, the worst seems to have passed. Yet China still controls 95 percent of the European magnesium market.

Some European projects are underway to produce magnesium in more environmentally friendly ways — for example, from aluminum waste. Several initiatives aim to support innovative circular economy projects. But progress has been clearly too slow. Remember, Estonia's defense industry alone wants to double its turnover within the next five years. Are we really going to do that with raw materials whose supply and price are controlled by a single country?

Ragn-Sells has presented a solution to the European Commission: critical and less critical primary raw materials could be extracted from the oil shale ash heaps lying unused in Ida-Viru County. About 500 million metric tons of ash sit there — like a raw material bank. If processed smartly, it could supply Europe with magnesium for 15 to 20 years.

The goals set in Brussels suggest a green light to get started. In 2023, the EU established that by 2030, roughly 40 percent of critical raw materials should come from within the Union. That seems tailor-made for replacing the declining oil shale industry in Ida-Viru County with a new hub of circular economy innovation.

In January of this year, the European Commission introduced its Competitiveness Compass. It states that we must accelerate innovation and reduce carbon emissions to become a global leader in climate neutrality — and also bolster European security, one key to which is reducing raw material dependence on other countries. The task is to launch exactly the kind of innovative research solutions that can recycle various waste materials with an ultra-low carbon footprint. Again, this seems custom-designed to give new life to Ida-Viru County's ash.

So what's the problem? The alarm bells have rung, the problem is recognized, the goals are set.

Unfortunately, in practice, we seem to be world champions at setting goals — but when it comes to implementation, we act like we have all the time in the world. And this isn't about blaming bureaucrats. In both Estonia and across Europe, we have excellent relationships with civil servants. Cooperation works. But we see they're overwhelmed — buried under layers of duties and substitute tasks, drowning in technocratic documents that often have little to do with the urgent priorities at hand or the grand declarations that action must be taken now.

So what's the solution? First, we need a clear objective that pushes everyone to go the extra mile. There must be a decision that industrial development in Estonia is important — that it is a government priority. Second, we need to map out what raw materials Estonia has — from sand to timber and from calcium carbonate to magnesium — and determine how we can refine them into globally competitive products.

Third, we need a fresh approach to developing industrial parks. The state should prepare not just the land, pipes, cables and roads, but also pre-clear key administrative hurdles for developers, like planning permits and approvals — issues that usually stifle enthusiasm and drag things out endlessly.

If we truly want Estonia to remain competitive in an increasingly cutthroat world, we can't afford to let investors wander for three, five or eight years in a bureaucratic maze. We need ready-made solutions — places where smart investors can turn local raw materials into new products within a year. The state has already promised such a package for the defense industrial park. Let's extend it to the entire industrial sector.

Estonia's and Europe's security is at risk and survival demands a different operating mode. The same goes for the economy and industry. We must clear our desks and focus only on the most urgent tasks. Everything that doesn't help solve this major crisis should be set aside until the storm has passed. Every entrepreneur, politician and government has faced such a regime before. There's nothing new in that. What's needed is direction, cooperation, bold decisions and strong leadership. Slogans and promises won't cut it unless we're truly prepared to follow through.

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