"It is a positive step for Ukraine in the sense that it creates a new long-term political bond between the United States and Ukraine," Raik said.

She acknowledged that while it is disappointing for Ukraine that the agreement does not include any specific security guarantees, the fact that it was signed at the level of political leadership gives U.S. leaders — especially President Donald Trump — the opportunity to justify domestically that he continues to support Ukraine.

"Because he sees that the relationship with Ukraine is economically very beneficial for the United States in the long term. At the same time, it makes it potentially much harder for the U.S. to completely disengage from issues related to Ukraine. Trump has now established a new type of agreement that would be difficult for him to fully walk away from," Raik commented.

Host Reimo Sildvee pointed to critics who say there are already U.S. companies that have operated in Ukraine for years without providing any real security guarantees for the country.

"It does not offer a direct security guarantee, but it does provide an additional reason for the United States to continue supporting Ukraine's independence and to keep working in some way toward achieving peace and stability in Ukraine, so that U.S. economic interests there are not harmed," Raik responded.

According to Raik, the current agreement is more favorable for Ukrainians because control over the mineral resources and decisions about what will be mined remain in Ukraine's hands. "But the investment fund to be created under this agreement gives the United States a preferential position in participating in investments related to the exploitation of those mineral resources and earning profits from them," Raik said.

"And as we know, this is an issue to which Trump has paid a lot of attention. Critical minerals will be very important in the future, and there is interest in reducing dependence on China. The need to use these resources will certainly continue to grow," she added.

Raik said it seems that the Russians are disturbed and surprised by the agreement. "I think they did not expect things to unfold this way. They assumed their position and influence over U.S. policy would be stronger, but now it turns out there has been some positive shift in U.S.-Ukraine relations," Raik stated.

Raik also noted it appears that Trump has grown frustrated with Putin. "It is especially important now to watch whether the United States will continue providing military aid to Ukraine. There are already some reports that Ukraine is receiving additional air defense assistance, and it is possible that U.S. support will continue. And then, of course, there's the issue of sanctions — whether the United States will impose additional ones," Raik said.

Speaking about statements by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that if there is no progress toward a peace process between Ukraine and Russia, the U.S. will end its mediation, Raik said this is intended as pressure on Russia.

"Russia is then forced to assess the situation, where U.S.-Ukraine relations have improved and where it will likely no longer be possible for Russia to secure any significant concessions. They have not agreed to the terms that have been offered so far. They have essentially pretended to engage in negotiations. For Russia, this could mean that their calculations will now change regarding how they might still achieve something positive for themselves if they continue the war," Raik explained.

She pointed out that until now, Russia had held out strong hopes that things were moving in the right direction from its perspective — that the U.S. was making continuous concessions, and that by dragging out the process, the terms would keep improving.

"But it seems that phase is now over. A new phase is emerging. It really is very significant that the United States is now saying, 'Actually, we're not in a hurry.' That puts Russia in a difficult position," Raik said.

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