Experts: US exit as Ukraine-Russia mediator won't alter near-term outlook

The U.S. withdrawal from the Ukraine peace process will not quickly bring about any major changes, experts have said, with previously approved aid and intelligence sharing likely to continue, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said that this was "not a big question."
"The question is more about whether the Ukrainians have enough human resources and definitely how much pressure will come from the Americans since they are out of the peace process — whether or not, they will continue to share intelligence and how, for example, and whether the rare earth metals agreement at least allows that aspect to continue, because that is certainly a critical component for Ukraine's resistance."
No significant progress was made this week on the Ukraine peace process, leading the Donald Trump administration to announce it was withdrawing from its mediating role.
Security expert Rainer Saks said this has caused confusion in Russia, with the May 9 "Victory Day" celebrations in that country just a few days off, and is likely to be accompanied by drone strikes from both sides.

Saks told "Aktuaalne kaamera": "Before May 9, both sides will still be trying seriously to influence each other. Ukraine's evident plan is to prevent Russia from fully taking the initiative in the peace process. I would expect that we will mainly see airstrikes from both sides, mostly with drones, and definitely, on the front lines; the Russian army will try to push forward seriously to exert pressure on Ukraine."
Saks said the rare earth metals agreement concluded between the US and Ukraine also caught the Russians somewhat by surprise since if it had been known that the deal was so close, attempts would have been made to stop it at all costs. Now, however, the Americans have developed a serious strategic interest in Ukraine, with the deal.
Saks added that recent attacks in Crimea show that Ukraine is capable of hitting quite complex and expensive targets far from territory it controls. "So I don't know if this is now based on U.S. intelligence. Recently, U.S. drones and aircraft haven't been seen much over the Black Sea; France and others have been flying there," Saks said.
Pevkur added he does not foresee Congress approving any new Ukraine aid package in the near future, though previously approved aid will continue and will reach the front lines, he said.

CBS News foreign editor Ramy Inocencio recently said: "While this deal does not explicitly say that the U.S. will continue to help Ukraine defend against Russia's invasion like under the Biden administration, that is the hope."
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham recently said that at least 72 senators are ready to vote on a sanctions package which would penalize countries purchasing oil and gas from Russia. According to Saks, this is a pressure tactic on Russia, adding he does not believe the Americans are in a particular hurry to implement it.
Washington has said it will no longer be mediating between Russia and Ukraine, and will leave those two countries to work out how to end the war, now in its fourth year.
The news followed days after the U.S. struck a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine which would mean both countries forming an equal 50:50 partnership on mineral, oil, and gas projects — with the resources remaining Ukraine's property — and which would help provide fresh U.S. aid such as air defense systems. The deal is pending ratification by Kyiv.
Editor's note: The "Aktuaalne kaamera" segment aired before Trump's interview with NBC in which he said he may sign Senator Graham's bill on fresh sanctions against Russia, if the Kremlin does not demonstrate readiness to move towards a peace agreement.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera'