On May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin displayed his country's military might in Moscow's Red Square, with about 20 foreign leaders in attendance as a show of global support. One of the most prominent guests was Chinese President Xi Jinping, with whom Putin shares a notably warm relationship. At the same time, Chinese and U.S. officials were engaged in friendly trade negotiations.

According to chess grandmaster and prominent Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov, Putin is already waging not a third, but a fourth world war.

"Putin is fighting the fourth world war, because in his view of history, the third was the Cold War, which the Soviet Union lost. He sees Russian history as an unbroken chain — Tsarist Russia, Bolshevik Russia, Putin's Russia. It's all one empire and he is trying to impose that imperial will on his neighbors and beyond. Putin's hybrid war uses every possible method. Don't forget, he's not a military dictator — he's a KGB guy," said Kasparov.

Xi Jinping, China's president, was showcased as the most politically powerful guest on the tribune. Since taking power in 2013, Xi has met with Putin 40 times and made 11 visits to Russia. This time, he stayed for four days.

"They've even had a couple of very rare public embraces — highly unusual for Xi," said Estonia's ambassador to China, Hannes Hanso.

The complex state of global politics has driven the two countries to find common ground.

"If you take a broad view, their shared denominator is mistrust of the United States. Fear of the U.S. and perhaps more broadly of the West," Hanso said.

At the same time, there are points of contention between the two. Russia dislikes China's increasing dominance over former Soviet republics in Central Asia and Beijing's stance on the war in Ukraine is also a point of friction.

The ambassador noted that Russia had likely hoped China would publicly back it, possibly even providing weapons.

China and the United States are currently engaged in trade talks, which both sides say are progressing constructively. A significant mutual reduction in protective tariffs has already been agreed upon.

"Both parties had in-depth discussions on trade and economic issues. The atmosphere was candid, thorough and constructive. Important progress was made and major consensus reached," said Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the talks were productive and conducted in a spirit of shared interests and mutual respect.

According to Hanso, the U.S. will not succeed in breaking the Moscow-Beijing friendship, even with an attractive trade deal that included the condition of distancing from Russia.

"That wouldn't be easy to pull off, because the calculations in the minds of these leaders go beyond economics. This is a matter of survival instinct for the leaders of non-democratic states. What's at stake here is the existence of their regimes and their personal survival," said Hanso.

China was uneasy when former President Donald Trump began direct dialogue with Putin, while Russia dislikes the U.S. directly engaging with China.

This was also reflected in a joint statement issued in Moscow: "Russia and China firmly oppose attempts by third parties to undermine Russian-Chinese friendship."

"That's a clear reference to the United States, highlighting the mutual interest both countries have in not selling each other out," the ambassador added.

Overall, Russians are viewed fairly positively in China, Hanso said. However, they are not seen as a "brotherly nation." The darker sides of shared history are also remembered.

"Many Chinese still recall Russia's actions on Chinese territory — there are even museums dedicated to Russian war crimes. And when Vladivostok recently celebrated its 100th or 150th anniversary, some Chinese social media users pointed out that the city rightfully belonged to China," Hanso said, describing Chinese sentiment.

In hindsight, Putin could breathe a sigh of relief: there were no Ukrainian drones at the Red Square parade. He could wave his fists in triumph.

"And who tried to intimidate those world leaders who attended? Those who welcome former SS soldiers and applaud them. Those who make national heroes out of individuals who collaborated with Hitler during World War II," Russian leader Vladimir Putin said.

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