Speaking about Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor, Raik said that compared to the previous government, Germany's position is now more assertive. "And I believe that Germany's intention to significantly increase its defense capabilities is serious. At the same time, it's politically difficult to move in that direction. There are differing opinions within Germany. So it won't be easy, and we can also expect that Russia, for its part, will try to use every possible lever to fuel criticism and protest against the government's policies in Germany," Raik said.

According to Raik, it has been a shock for Germans to realize they can no longer fully rely on the United States. "I think that has also significantly changed German attitudes," she said.

"Germans have long held the belief in Europe that their role is to build good relations with Russia. They haven't quite managed to make a full turnaround from that. There are still political forces in Germany eagerly waiting for the war to end so that relations with Russia can quickly be normalized. In this context, Friedrich Merz is trying to shift Germany's course and significantly strengthen support for Ukraine and investment in its own defense," Raik explained.

She added that Germany is now also expected to take a leading role in the so-called coalition of the willing in support of Ukraine.

"Germany is simply the largest and wealthiest country in Europe. So whether we're talking about Europe's defense capability, support for Ukraine or whether Europe can build credible deterrence against Russia, Germany must make a strong contribution — otherwise, it simply won't be credible enough. So right now, the future of European security depends heavily on Germany, and Merz carries a great deal of responsibility," said Raik.

What is the US position in Ukraine peace talks?

Speaking about peace talks involving Ukraine, Raik said that in the bigger picture, there has been no significant change in the positions of either Russia or Ukraine. However, the biggest question mark remains the position of the United States.

"It's unstable, and there's an ongoing tug-of-war over who can influence the U.S. position more — Russia or Ukraine together with Europe. At times, it seems like Ukraine and European countries are making some progress, but then there's a setback, and it appears that Russia still has influence over Trump," Raik said.

"It seems that Trump has taken the stance that Russia should be treated as a major power. He has tried to maintain a neutral position. Occasionally, he has said he's willing to increase pressure on Russia, but then he quickly pulls back from that position again," Raik commented.

She noted that we are now in a situation where very concrete proposals have been made. "Ukraine has said that Zelenskyy is ready to negotiate with Putin. And now is the moment that will test whether the U.S. and European countries are truly prepared to increase pressure on Russia. Both the U.S. and Europe have said they are ready to do so. When it comes to the U.S., I still have some doubts about whether they'll follow through," said Raik.

"Recent signals from the leaders of Europe's major countries suggest that Europe is prepared to both tighten sanctions and increase military aid to Ukraine. So I think the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom have staked a great deal of their credibility on this. I expect to see some real actions follow those statements," she said.

Host Maria-Ann Rohemäe pointed out that a sanctions package backed by dozens of senators has been prepared in the U.S. Congress, and it seems more than 70 senators are ready to approve it. But is the White House prepared to accept it?

"In a normal political climate, it would be clear that U.S. policy would move in the direction supported by such a large number of senators. But now, with Trump as president, we can't be so sure. He has tried to consolidate more power in his own hands. It may turn out that, in the end, everyone falls in line behind Trump, and decisions that he personally does not support cannot be made," Raik responded.

As for whether Vladimir Putin will show up in Turkey for peace talks, Raik is far from certain. "I'm not holding my breath. I'm convinced that Russia will find some justification for why Putin cannot make the trip. Russia will still try to shift the blame onto Ukraine. We'll have to see whether the U.S. is willing to go along with that game," she said.

Raik: Russia and China demonstrate no one can break their partnership

Raik also commented on the relationship between Russia and China, saying that Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent visit to Moscow confirmed that the United States will not easily be able to drive a wedge between the two countries.

"Neither China nor Russia trusts the U.S. — that's clear. And they don't fully trust each other either, but I believe they do recognize that they share important common interests. The main shared interest, which has been evident for years, is that both want to see U.S. influence on the international stage weakened. So even though both countries are separately engaged in their own negotiations with the U.S., I think this visit sent the signal that their partnership is one that no outside actor can easily break," Raik said.

However, many analysts have noted that the U.S. has tried to use Ukraine peace talks as a way to draw Russia out of China's orbit.

"All the experts on China-Russia relations who have commented on this issue have been fairly unanimous in saying that this was an unrealistic goal. While it's true that some within the U.S. administration believed that a kind of 'reverse Kissinger' strategy — trying to pull Russia away from China — that it was indeed one of the aims of the U.S.," Raik said.

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