Russia refused the 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine proposed by Western countries, and although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, it has now become quite clear that Putin will not attend the meeting planned for Thursday, Raik said on the "Esimene stuudio" evening talk show.

"At this point, it's clear to everyone that Putin does not want to negotiate with Zelenskyy — he's simply trying to find a way to create the impression that the delay in talks is Ukraine's fault. He also definitely wants to keep the United States involved in the process, so that a bilateral process between the U.S. and Russia continues," Raik said.

According to Raik, Ukrainians are prepared for the war to continue for a long time and are not expecting a quick resolution.

"I don't think Russia expects a quick peace either. Russia simply does not want peace. Ukrainians, of course, would like peace, but they see that Russia is not willing to accept a peace agreement that would guarantee the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty. The Russian side still believes that by continuing the war, they might achieve a better outcome for themselves," she said.

An even more important reason why Putin does not want peace, Raik added, is that for the regime he leads, the war in Ukraine has become like oxygen — it helps the regime stay alive.

"If the war were to end, then all those economic and social problems in Russian society, which are very serious, would become much harder to control. Right now, they can be justified by the war," she said.

Raik noted that Russia is not prepared to accept Ukraine as a sovereign state. "The only solution acceptable to Putin's regime is for Ukraine to capitulate and for Russia to bring Ukraine under its control. Nothing has changed in that regard," she said.

Under Trump's leadership, the U.S. has tried to play a neutral role as a peace broker and attempted to treat Putin as the leader of a major power, guiding the whole process in a way that would allow Putin to save face, Raik observed.

"But I fear that there is no real formula for achieving peace in which Putin saves face and Ukraine retains its sovereignty. I'm afraid that with the current Russian regime, a real peace agreement is simply not going to happen. At most, there could be a ceasefire — if the ability to continue fighting disappears and Russia is forced to recalculate and conclude that it's no longer possible to improve the outcome of the war in its favor. Then they might agree to a ceasefire and some kind of negotiation process. But that still wouldn't mean a peace agreement," Raik said.

The reason talks are happening at all between Ukraine and Russia right now, Raik said, is because the United States wants them to. Ukraine is being pushed to participate, and so are European countries — even if they don't see much hope that peace can be achieved at this point.

"But keeping the U.S. involved in the process is important for everyone. The Russians want that too, for their own reasons — they still hope the current U.S. administration might make some concessions. Perhaps they also hoped that the U.S. could force Ukraine into a peace deal on bad terms. That now seems unlikely. Ukraine is now somewhat more hopeful that the U.S. will continue to support it. The recent agreement on natural resources has added a bit of hope in that regard," said Raik.

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