Estonia's defense minister says U.S. intelligence chief understands Russian threat

In an interview with ERR following his Tuesday meeting in Washington with U.S. intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard, Pevkur said that the threat posed by Russia is well understood in the United States, while the next steps by the administration will depend on Thursday's negotiations in Turkey.
You met with conservative think tanks. U.S. Republicans often disagree about where America's security policy priorities should lie. What impression did you get from those meetings?
I would say that the think tanks have largely adopted the administration's position that China remains the primary threat to the United States. Their main focus is shifting to the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, they are currently reassessing their global activities — where they are present, what they need to be doing and what their interests are.
But what came through clearly in all the meetings was that what Estonia is doing is right. Our contribution to national defense — more than 5 percent [of GDP] — is extremely important, as are our messages and stance toward Russia. At a meeting with the intelligence chief, it was also evident that our positions and their assessments are actually aligned.
There was a lot of positive insight I gained, but there were also things that still need time to sink in. We'll have to see how events unfold in the coming weeks and months — especially in relation to expectations around the end of the war in Ukraine.
What exactly still needs time to sink in?
Well, the future is definitely going to be heavily influenced by what happens in Ukraine. The meeting convened in Istanbul for Thursday will provide some insight on that. The administration is certainly watching very closely to see whether — and who — from the Russian side will attend. Based on that, a new sanctions package is currently pending in Congress. And no doubt, the next steps from the United States will also depend on how Russia behaves.
You also had several meetings in Congress. What was the perspective there? Will support for Ukraine continue?
Congress is definitely quite pro-Ukraine. There's a clear stance in support of Ukraine. However, I didn't get the sense that new military aid packages are on the horizon. Sanctions, yes — Senator Lindsey Graham's proposed new sanctions package is still on the table. Everyone understands that it really requires backing from the White House as well, which is why there's a lot of anticipation around what will come out of Thursday's meeting. If nothing meaningful comes from it, then they'll likely move forward with the sanctions package.
What was your personal impression after leaving Congress — do you believe the U.S. remains a reliable ally for us?
Yes, absolutely. The United States has a very clear understanding of the global situation — there's no doubt about that. It's also important to keep in mind that if President Trump attends the summit in The Hague, he won't back down from his demand for 5 percent. In that regard, Estonia holds strong cards — we've already made the decision to invest 5 percent, and next year it will even be 5.4 percent.
The summit in The Hague will play a significant role in shaping what the U.S. military posture in Europe will look like, what the next steps will be and whether and to what extent the U.S. presence in Europe might be reconsidered. But everywhere I went, it was emphasized that Estonia has demonstrated clearly that investing in its own defense is the right course of action — and that is something the United States supports.
You also had a chance to meet with Tulsi Gabbard. What impression did today's meeting leave you with? She has previously made some highly controversial statements about the war in Ukraine, and some members of Congress have even accused her of spreading Russian propaganda.
Tulsi Gabbard and her entire team actually have a very clear understanding of the threat posed by Russia — there's no doubt about that. The real question is what decisions the administration will make based on the intelligence assessments being brought back. And of course, there's the matter of Russia's actual condition — what it is capable or incapable of doing and what the threats are. From a purely intelligence standpoint, there are no uncertainties there.
The same goes for the military perspective — there's clarity. But from all the different assessments that various intelligence agencies compile, the political leadership still needs to draw its own conclusions and make its own decisions. As I mentioned earlier, a lot will depend on how the situation in Ukraine is resolved, and that, in turn, will shape Europe-U.S. relations moving forward. We spoke relatively little about tariffs; our focus was clearly on security.
Earlier, you mentioned how the U.S. remains a reliable ally for us. Does Tulsi Gabbard view a small country like Estonia as a serious and credible partner?
Absolutely. First of all, Estonia has historically had very strong contacts within the intelligence community. Second, information-sharing between different intelligence services — including within NATO — is very close and active. So from that perspective, the U.S. intelligence community is well aware of the capabilities of Estonia's intelligence services, and the areas of cooperation are very solid.

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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Aleksander Krjukov