First and foremost, I would reaffirms the principle that our security and sense of safety depend on the collective contribution of us all. Our success hinges on how well we can keep pace with the growing threats we face — whether the development of our defense capabilities outpaces the accumulation of danger directed at us. The decisive increase in funding for national defense has only been made possible thanks to public support and a shared willingness to make sacrifices for the protection of our country. At the same time, it is striking how quickly and ungratefully we grow accustomed to major changes.

National defense needs like changing a tire on a moving car

When speaking about military defense, it's important to note that several key aspects have been overlooked. In both Estonia and across Europe, public attention is focused on two main developments: the course of the war in Ukraine and efforts being made toward a peace agreement.

It is possible that once a peace deal is reached, a new era will begin for Europe, as Russia would then be able to redirect its freed-up military resources toward NATO's eastern flank. There are several indications that our eastern neighbor is concentrating certain capabilities but is not currently deploying them against Ukraine, despite having reason to do so.

The latest such sign involved new armored vehicles, whose absence from the front lines drew attention. Of course, these capabilities could be intended for a new offensive in Ukraine, but the possibility that they are being reserved for use against NATO's eastern flank cannot be ruled out. A time of turbulent doubts about the alliance's operational readiness creates a favorable moment to put NATO to the test.

In this context, it is reassuring to note that Estonia is developing its defense capabilities at a fast pace. The main activities include rapid procurement, personnel development and the simultaneous integration of modern wartime experience. The gaps that have emerged in recent years must be closed while at the same time establishing a number of new, modern capabilities and units. Put more humorously, our national defenders are tasked with changing a tire while the car is still moving. It appears they have figured out how to do just that.

Key developments through 2029

In addition to the funding allocated by the government, nearly €2.8 billion more will be added, resulting in defense spending amounting to roughly 5.4 percent of GDP (including VAT) through 2029, according to economic forecasts.

The main developments in the Land Forces, our primary branch of the armed forces, are as follows: firepower and long-range strike capabilities will increase, the resilience of command and support functions will improve and deep reconnaissance capabilities — that is, the ability to identify enemy targets from a distance — will grow. Capabilities in drone warfare and electronic warfare will also be enhanced. Unmanned aerial units will be integrated into brigades and territorial defense units. Armed unmanned aerial capabilities will be incorporated into Land Forces units. An engineering battalion will be established under the division's command.

In air defense, the aim is to strengthen the sector as a whole and to develop layered air defense, for which an air defense brigade will be created. We will enhance both medium- and short-range air defense capabilities and begin developing a new capability: ballistic missile defense.

The Navy plans to modernize the fleet, with a focus on developing mine countermeasures and surveillance capabilities. Existing minehunters will be renovated, one coastal patrol vessel will be replaced and two new force-protection boats will be acquired.

The most significant personnel developments involve increasing the number of active-duty soldiers and technical specialists. We will expand the active-duty payroll budget and bring in additional reservists. Support payments for reservists and conscripts — currently outdated — will be increased. Retention bonuses will be implemented to encourage highly trained active-duty personnel to stay in service longer.

Procurement of ammunition will be expedited. Investments in ammunition acquisition will grow to €5 billion, including procurement for new capabilities, long-range influence on enemy territory and strengthened air defense. Instead of over seven years, the additional ammunition will now be procured within five.

The list of infrastructure projects is extensive. The highest priority is the development of the Baltic Defense Zone and additional infrastructure at existing military campuses. A new campus will be developed in Narva and conditions for hosting allied units will improve. Four new Defense League battalion buildings, shooting ranges and bunkers are planned. Development of the Nursipalu Training Area will continue.

In addition to all this, strengthening innovation capabilities is key to adopting new technologies. A defense industrial park will be established in Pärnu County, where the state will provide core infrastructure for up to five companies to produce ammunition and explosives. Support for the development of the defense industry will be increased. Further advancements will continue in data communication solutions and cloud-based services, with expanded use of satellite communication and the introduction of artificial intelligence.

These developments are impressive. However, for all of it to function effectively, we must ensure that the deployment of military capabilities — if necessary, the execution of mobilization — can take place at a sufficient level, even under enemy attack.

Experience has shown that alongside military force, internal security forces also play a crucial role. The Police and Border Guard Board needs combatant status. Its planned reserve must receive the necessary armaments. Attitudes and policies toward civilian gun owners should be made friendlier and more in line with a broad-based national defense. In the early phase of an attack — marked by chaos, looting and confusion — civilian gun owners are the country's first line of defense, especially in protecting the population and our families. This is a clear lesson from Ukraine.

We must ensure that all sectors of the state support our unified societal defense effort, rather than sowing distrust toward the government. Defense is strong when it rests on mutual trust between the state and its people. National defense is also indirectly supported by progress in other sectors, including the pension system, social affairs, education and the economy. A vivid example is the debate over surveillance cameras, which, in this context, would be far more appropriate for protecting our border areas and critical infrastructure.

All in all, the outlook is hopeful. In addition to the strong momentum in national defense, Estonia is active in foreign policy and progressing economically. This positive backdrop is a powerful supporting factor in all our efforts.

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