Bolton to ERR: Ceasefire would rather benefit Russia at this time

John Bolton, who served as national security adviser at the White House during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, told ERR in an interview that Russian regime leader Vladimir Putin was the biggest winner from Monday's phone call.
According to Bolton, Putin got exactly what he wanted — there were no concrete agreements made during the phone call.
"He wanted a private conversation with Trump and that's what he got," Bolton noted, pointing out that there were no interruptions or pressure from Zelenskyy or other European leaders.
Bolton said that Trump has now come to understand that the peace negotiations have stalled and that Washington is closer than ever to stepping away from its role as mediator.
"I believe that would be his next logical step," Bolton said. "But he hasn't walked away yet. Not yet."
Uncertainty over Ukraine aid
The bigger question, according to the former national security adviser, is whether stepping away from the negotiations would also mean an end to the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. "That would be a catastrophe," Bolton said.
He added that while there is still support for Ukraine in Congress, it is likely to come in the form of new sanctions rather than weapons. For instance, Senate Republican Lindsey Graham, a loyal ally of Trump, has introduced a bill to sanction countries that purchase Russian natural resources.
Graham has said he has the necessary support in the Senate, but Bolton expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions. "I've been told that you can walk down the street in Moscow peacefully — if drones aren't attacking, everything seems fairly normal. The economy hasn't really taken a hit."
"If the goal is for sanctions to work, they need to be broad, sweeping and imposed quickly," Bolton said, adding that this has not been the case with Russia.
"I read in the Financial Times a few days ago that the most recent EU sanctions package would be the 17th," he noted. "Sanctions have failed. Why are there 17 different sanctions packages?"
Ceasefire would serve Russia's interests
"From Ukraine's perspective, a ceasefire isn't actually beneficial," Bolton said, but added that this is only true if the United States continues its support or if European countries step in to make up the difference.
Trump's former national security adviser also drew on his previous experience at the United Nations. "A ceasefire line would become a de facto border," he explained. According to Bolton, that would amount to a Ukrainian defeat. "Russia would be in control of 20 percent of their territory."
"It's the Russians who should be wanting a ceasefire," he remarked. In Bolton's view, the Russian military is in disarray and needs time to recover. "That would allow them to invade for a third time," Bolton said, adding that the only way to prevent this is by providing security guarantees to Zelenskyy.
Nobel Peace Prize
John Bolton, who served as White House national security adviser during Donald Trump's first term, is now a well-known critic of the president. In an interview with ERR, he said that Trump's sole goal is to win the Nobel Peace Prize. As for what Trump might receive it for, Bolton said the former president doesn't particularly care.
"He could get it for something in Ukraine. He could get it for something in the Middle East. He could get it from the India-Pakistan conflict," Bolton listed. "If his friend Vlad doesn't do what's needed, he'll drop that angle and shift his focus to the Middle East instead," he predicted.
According to Bolton, the Nobel Peace Prize has been an obsession for Trump ever since former U.S. President Barack Obama received it. "He believes Obama got it unfairly — and frankly, I agree with that," he said.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Barbara Oja