The means to do this do exist, Tiido said, adding that in any case without a ceasefire, it is impossible to move forward with the Russia-Ukraine peace process and that one way to pressure Russia would be to ban the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea. He emphasized that the means to do so exist.

Speaking to "Ukraina stuudio," Tiido said: "I think what's needed here is simply to turn up the pressure. And one way would be — I've proposed this elsewhere too — to completely ban the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea, for example. The means to do so actually exist. Lawyers should be tasked — not with the question 'is it possible?' but rather 'find a way how it's possible.' It is indeed possible."

"In fact, those tankers should be stopped on the far side of the Danish straits," he went on, referring to ships, some of them empty oil tankers looking to take on a cargo, bound for the Russian Federation

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the talks with Ukraine held in Istanbul on Friday, the first time the two sides had met in around three years, instead dispatching a lower-level delegation.

On this Tiido said: "Well, it was a muppet show, of course."

"The one useful outcome is those 1,000 prisoners. Especially for Ukraine, as the condition of Ukrainian prisoners in Russia is, to put it mildly, not good. So something was achieved, and that's a plus for Ukraine," Tiido went on, referring to the prisoner of war exchange which was agreed.

At the same time, the head of the Russian delegation, political scientist and Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky, was not a credible negotiator, Tiido noted.

That neither Putin nor U.S. President Donald Trump took part in the talks may actually have been a good thing for Ukraine, Tiido argued, as if they had been present, it could have led to a situation where both might have started pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"Actually, the fact that he (Putin – ed.) didn't go – that was good," Tiido said. "First, of course, he didn't want to meet with Zelenskyy, as he sees him as being on an entirely different level, and that he can only talk to people like Trump. Perhaps it was good that the meeting didn't happen," Tiido said.

Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance had already met with Zelenskyy back in February for a three-quarters-of-an-hour mostly cordial talk, but which ended in a few minutes of heated exchange in which the president and vice president scolded the Ukrainian president, mostly for what they called a lack of gratitude about U.S. aid.

Tiido said that Putin may have no desire to end the war any time soon because he fears that returning vets could pose a threat to Russian society and to his own power, with factors including not only the trauma of conflict but also the end of the sweetener pay levels offered to volunteers following the switchover from conscription as the main source of human resources.

"For him, ending the war is dangerous. Hundreds of thousands of men have passed through the front. A large number have already returned as veterans, and more would come if the war ended. But those veterans could pose a threat to society since if you earn three grand a month at the front and come back to a regular salary of €600 a month; many will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder and other issues. Some will start drinking, others will start killing, and still others will start robbing. So it is better to keep them on the front," Tiido said.

Tiido noted that based on past experience there is also the chance of Trump and Putin reaching some sort of agreement in a phone call scheduled for Monday. "Usually, when Trump talks with Putin, he is the one who caves. He has always been the accommodating party in the conversations with Putin," Tiido said, adding that this agreement may not be the best thing for Ukraine.

"One deal might be agreeing to pressure Ukraine into doing something. For example, handing over those same oblasts that Russia has declared its own via its constitution, or something like that," he added.

A few months after the 2022 invasion began, Putin amended the constitution to incorporate the easternmost Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – into the Russian Federation.

At Friday's talks, Russia demanded the "retention" of those four occupied oblasts, with a Ukrainian rejection of that to be responded to by occupying the next four oblasts to the west – this is even as Russia has failed to gain full control of the whole of any of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson oblasts.

Host Reimo Sildvee asked whether Trump, after the phone call with Putin, could demand that Zelenskyy give up those currently occupied territories, not only the four oblasts but also Crimea, which Russia has occupied since an illegal referendum held there in 2014.

The implication would be that the U.S. would stop supporting Ukraine with aid if Ukraine refused.

"This is entirely possible, but I think Zelenskyy would respond that he doesn't agree with it because he hasn't been part of the negotiations — this was negotiated between Trump and Putin; that's their vision, not his," Tiido replied. "In addition, he has European support. I'd like to believe that this European support will stay. That really carries a lot of weight for him right now."

On the question of how the peace process could still move forward, Tiido said: "The most logical thing is that first there must be a ceasefire — a ceasefire along the current front line. Russia is trying to shift that line slightly westward, while the Ukrainians are doing the opposite. And if it settles on that line, then it's possible to start talking. As long as fighting continues, there can be no peace process."

Tiido said Russia presented demands at Friday's Istanbul talks which were essentially unchanged on 2022. "They haven't changed anything. Ukraine is naturally opposed to it. If they come again with the same things, then both sides will just read out their positions, nod along, and then go their separate ways," he said.

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