"This marks a new phase and a new situation that is leading us down a very dangerous path. By flexing its muscles in NATO airspace, Russia is signaling both its willingness and capability to escalate the situation when it comes to the shadow fleet," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys.

"In the past, Russia pretended to have nothing to do with the shadow fleet. Now they have physically defended such a vessel with fighter jets. Russia can no longer claim that this is a private business venture unrelated to them. I believe the European Union, NATO, Finland, Estonia — all of them together — can now act much more decisively and actively, because it's clear that Russia has escalated the situation," said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, executive director of the Nordic West Office think tank.

Russia primarily uses its shadow fleet — comprising nearly 400 ships — to circumvent sanctions, as well as environmental and safety regulations. Most of these vessels sail under flags of convenience and are aging rust buckets that could easily cause a major environmental disaster. More importantly, the shadow fleet helps keep Russia's war machine running — something that might otherwise grind to a halt.

The Baltic states understand best the need to eliminate the shadow fleet, followed by other countries bordering the Baltic Sea. Farther away in the EU, the problem may seem more remote. According to the Lithuanian foreign minister, Russia's recent aggressive behavior indicates that the EU has, in fact, succeeded in making life harder for Moscow.

"This means that all our efforts — sanctions on Russian energy exports, sanctions on Russian ships — have worked. We've dismantled Russia's ability to operate at its preferred pace. It shows we're doing the right thing. Now we must adapt to the new reality or Russia will push back," said Budrys.

One of the most pressing and increasingly urgent issues amid Russia's growing aggression is the lack of coordination among those trying to counter the shadow fleet. Baltic Sea nations are pursuing one strategy, the European Union another and NATO yet another. This fragmented approach gives Russia plenty of room to keep its shadow fleet running.

"What we do in the Baltic Sea should serve as a model for others on how to protect their coastlines — that's why it matters. I haven't even mentioned the Baltic Sea's unique nature; it's an especially sensitive marine area, as recognized by the International Maritime Organization. That places a greater responsibility on us to protect it. It's ours! Too often people say the Baltic is a NATO lake, but we don't act like it's our lake," said Budrys.

"The law and its interpretation — that's something that could be standardized. Of course we must follow international maritime law, but there needs to be a consistent interpretation. As we saw here, the ship had no flag; in such cases, it should be immediately inspected. These vessels should not be allowed to pass. The main issue is still sanctions — there are so many different sanctions lists, and ships are coming and going. Standardizing these lists is one necessary step," said Salonius-Pasternak.

NATO representatives also stress that curbing the shadow fleet requires political will and coordinated economic measures more than military force, as the Baltic Sea is already fairly secure from a defense standpoint.

"The Baltic Sentry mission and NATO's broader operations are primarily focused on deterrence and countering sabotage aimed at critical infrastructure. Less attention has been given to tackling the shadow fleet. When they do enter the area, we are of course involved, and we carry out operations to ensure that maritime law is upheld. But most of the measures relevant to the shadow fleet are fundamentally economic in nature," said Lt. Gen. John Mead, deputy commander of NATO's Joint Force Command Brunssum.

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