Speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera," Värk said: "Russia cannot escort all shadow fleet vessels or tankers located in our waters. They lack the capacity and resources for that, though Russia might also use ship protection teams," meaning personnel placed on board a shadow fleet vessel.

At the same time, a show of force on the Baltic is vital for the western democracies.

The Russian fleet has started exercises on the Baltic Sea, which also involve part of its Northern Fleet and its air force. Russian news agency Interfax claims that these are scheduled exercises, but it is not specified whether they are related to Russia's threat to start protecting its shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea.

While NATO has not so far shown readiness to use force so far, its Baltic Sentry mission was not initiated for that purpose either, Värk said.

"The Baltic Sentry operation consolidates the information from the navies of the Baltic Sea states and puts it in one place. It is distributed from there as needed," he added.

Security expert Karmo Tüür meanwhile said: "Militarily and politically, this allows Moscow to claim that NATO's thesis of the Baltic Sea as an internal NATO sea is, figuratively speaking, exaggerated."

One factor is the current low oil prices, which twinned with sanctions do not favor Russia as a petro-state.

This also means securing shadow fleet tankers from the air and sea is not practical.

"The oil price cap is already so low that these are no longer needed. Sending out theoretical convoys would render Russia's oil sales pointless, as it would consume all profits," Tüür went on.

Also speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera" was maritime law specialist Alexander Lott, who said that within an exclusive economic zone, any warship accompanying a merchant vessel is clearly operating in accordance with freedom of navigation principles.

Lott gave as an example the EU operation ASPIDES in the Red Sea, in response to strikes on shipping by the rebel Yemeni Houthis.

At the same time were Russian warships able to prevent anchor dragging incidents along the seafloor, such as that which damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline in October 2023, this would be most welcome, Loot noted.

Tüür also called into question referring unflagged ships such as the Jaguar as a shadow fleet whatsoever. This is because the vessels are already known and known about, meaning there is not much about them which constitutes a "shadow" when operating in the confines of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea more broadly.

The Jaguar incident was the most recently reported case of a Russian shadow fleet vessel entering Estonian waters. Whereas last month's Kiwala case saw that tanker detained for two weeks off Estonia's coast, after entering territorial waters, the Jaguar sailed on without responding to Estonia's efforts to apprehend it, when it entered Estonia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) on May 13.

A Greek-flagged tanker, the Green Admire, which set sail for Rotterdam from the Estonian port of Sillamäe, was detained by Russia the weekend before last, despite sticking to a route agreed by Russia, Estonia and Finland, aimed at negotiating the shallow waters in the region.

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