Last week, the Estonian Navy escorted the shadow fleet tanker Jaguar out of Estonia's exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. Authorities had planned to detain the vessel, but it ignored orders and proceeded into Russia's economic zone. The Russian Air Force dispatched two fighter jets to provide escort.

As of Wednesday, the ship is anchored at the Port of Primorsk in Russia.

Experts say the failed detention attempt highlighted both the level of political decision-making and Estonia's military capabilities.

Former Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) commander Gen. Martin Herem told ERR that Estonia has the capability — both independently and with allies — to board shadow fleet vessels.

"To my knowledge, our capabilities have not diminished over the past two years," Herem said. "That's why I can confidently say that in cooperation between the Defense Forces and the Police and Border Guard Board (PPA), we are capable of boarding ships either directly or via helicopter. But cooperation is essential. We also have the capability, including from our allies, to provide air support."

He noted that authorization to board in such situations must come from the government. "It may be decided during the operation by the lead agency — whether the Defense Forces, the Navy or the PPA — but the initial mandate must come from the government," Herem said.

Herem emphasized that Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) said Tuesday on Vikerraadio's "Stuudios on peaminister" program that he had reviewed the plan ahead of the operation, and it did not include boarding the ship.

"To now claim that the Navy or anyone else got spooked by the Sukhoi jets (Russian fighters — ed.) isn't quite accurate, if we take the minister at his word — because there was no plan to board and no immediate threat. That the ship ignored commands is a separate issue," Herem said.

He added that authorities likely chose not to escalate the situation. "We showed our presence. Whether the vessel intended to damage infrastructure — we don't know. I have no intelligence information. But the ship left our waters, and I believe that fulfilled the objective."

As of Wednesday, the non-compliant ship remains anchored at the Russian port of Primorsk. Asked whether Jaguar took last week's events as a signal it can again pass through Estonian waters unimpeded, Herem said: "That's an extremely interesting question, because at the time the vessel reportedly had no flag state. Later, it was claimed it does have one. (According to marinetraffic.com, the ship flies the flag of Gabon, but last week EDF Headquarters Chief Vahur Karus said Gabon had revoked that status — ed.) What would now justify boarding this specific ship — I don't know. But it will be very interesting to see what the Estonian government decides to do with a vessel that has already transited our waters without complying with orders."

Herem stressed that a lack of capability is not the issue. "And let's not forget the Baltic Sea doesn't belong to Estonia alone — this ship could pose a threat to other countries as well. We have several options: act in cooperation with NATO, with the Czech Republic, bilaterally or multilaterally with other countries. These technical options are certainly available, especially with allied support. But I believe Estonia also has sufficient capability to act alone, if necessary."

How Estonia should respond if another flagless vessel enters its economic waters is, according to Herem, a decision for the government. "I don't want to lecture them — they have much more information. They are responsible, and I trust they know what they're doing," he said.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!