There had been plans to board the Jaguar, but the operation was called off midway, said Cmdr. Jüri Saska, former longtime commander of the Estonian Navy.

"Boarding was indeed planned — but that [plan] was reassessed on the fly," he explained. "It was deemed either unfeasible or unreasonable. Compared to the last time, when we succeeded in guiding a tanker to anchor in our waters, this didn't go nearly as well. And this had been merely an escort, then the [patrol vessel EML] Raju shouldn't have carried out such maneuvers."

Saska said it's important that the Estonian Navy not end up the scapegoat in this incident, and that the public clearly understand who is making the decisions and what Estonia's current capabilities are for carrying out such operations.

"If something doesn't go as planned out there, we're operating in an international environment, in international waters — not on Estonian territory," the former naval commander explained. "And the legal framework is somewhat different there. The decision-making for processes or actions like this — I hope it does, but it definitely must take place at the political level, and not be up to the commander of the Navy or the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) to decide."

Part of the issue is the ships themselves.

"In this case, the Navy doesn't have the kinds of equipped, armed vessels needed to carry out a forced operation like this," Saska acknowledged. "And that's something the Navy and the EDF have brought up in various discussions or proposals for the past ten years."

"Estonia is procuring a lot of long-range artillery, same as Lithuania," noted former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. "So we have to weigh — whether you invest now in the ships that could help you now with the shadow fleet problem, maybe, right? Or you don't — invest in something else."

Cooperation between the Navy, the police and the border guard must also be tightly coordinated.

"As of today, I don't see — and this is just my assessment — that this has been practiced together to the extent that such an operation could be carried out safely," Saska said. "Maybe it has been. A year ago, it hadn't."

In Helsinki this January, leading Baltic Sea politicians and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of the alliance's Baltic Sea Guardian operation. Security expert Meelis Oidsalu questions what the Baltic Sea Guardian is actually burning diesel for.

"We haven't really heard about what this operation has done to resolve the shadow fleet problem," said Oidsalu.

"Naval operations like this tend to be shadowing ones — fairly passive," he continued. "When a small country starts pursuing a more forceful approach beyond its means, it will quickly find itself isolated. Unfortunately, that's what happened in this case."

Jets scrambled as Russian fighter jet responds to tanker

On Tuesday, May 13, the tanker Jaguar — suspected of being an unflagged part of Russia's shadow fleet — entered Estonia's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) on the Baltic Sea, ignoring orders from Estonian authorities.

A Russian Su-35 fighter jet violated Estonian airspace to shield the tanker, prompting Portuguese Air Force F-16s serving the Baltic Air Policing mission out of Ämari Air Base to scramble and conduct a reconnaissance flight alongside other Estonian aircraft. The tanker eventually left for Russian waters without being boarded.

The incident marked the first time Russia so openly backed a shadow fleet vessel.

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