Poll: Centre-EKRE-Isamaa coalition ahead of Reform-SDE alternative

Centre Party, EKRE and Isamaa coalition agreement signing.
Centre Party, EKRE and Isamaa coalition agreement signing. Source: Aurelia Minev/ERR

A poll published by daily Postimees on Wednesday has Centre-EKRE-Isamaa at 47.9% support and the Reform-SDE proposal voted down on Monday at 42.2%. Meanwhile the Reform Party remains the most popular single party, well ahead of Centre and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

The survey was carried out between 18 March and 15 April by pollster Norstat and included a total of 4,014 respondents.

While the coalition proposal before the Riigikogu today has the backing of some 47.9% of voting-age citizens, the alternative proposed by Reform Party Kaja Kallas voted down by the parliament on Monday is backed by 42.2%. The parties that remained below the 5% threshold in the 3 March general election have the support of some 10% of voters, Postimees wrote.

Reform remains most popular party by comfortable margin

Meanwhile the Reform Party is by far the most popular political force at 33% support. Coming in second more than 10 points behind is the Centre Party, at 20.6%, followed by the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) at 17.9%.

The third partner in the coalition to be voted on today, Isamaa, is at 9.4% support, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 9.2%.

The parties outside the Riigikogu are led by Estonia 200, which managed to remain above the election threshold at 5.8%, followed by the Estonian Greens at 2.3%. The remaining political groups all came in at under 1% support.

National-conservative think tank, the Institute of Societal Studies, which commissioned this Norstat poll, said on Wednesday that though the results of the poll are influenced by the fact that the signing of the Centre-EKRE-Isamaa coalition agreement fell into the polling period, this "didn't indicate any noticeable change".

Compared to Norstat's last approval survey, the Reform Party lost 0.4, the Centre Party 0.2, and Isamaa 0.6 percentage points. EKRE gained 1.4 and SDE 0.1 percentage points.

Support of Reform among Russian speakers increases

One detail that stands out is that while Russian speakers' support for the Centre Party has decreased slightly, that for Reform has increased. Their approval of Centre dropped from 67 to 62%, while Reform went from 11 to 13%, gaining 2% support.

The Institute of Societal Studies commissions a party survey from Norstat once a week. The results published on Wednesday reflect the combined outcome of the last four polls, carried out between 18 March and 15 April.

A total of 4,014 Estonian citizens aged 18 and older were interviewed online and over the phone for the surveys. The margin of error, according to Norstat, is +/- 1.55%.

Editor: Dario Cavegn

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