Emor: Party ratings restored to pre-coronavirus crisis level in July

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Minister of Finance Martin Helme (EKRE), Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (Center) and Isamaa chair Helir-Valdor Seeder.
Minister of Finance Martin Helme (EKRE), Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (Center) and Isamaa chair Helir-Valdor Seeder. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Support for the Reform Party increased to 31 percent in July, which is the same level as before the coronavirus crisis, the latest poll conducted by Kantar Emor shows. The Center Party's support level fell below EKRE's.

The pollster asked respondents: "If the Riigikogu elections took place tomorrow and the listed parties particiapated, who would you vote for?" Choices were given as Reform, Center, EKRE, Social Democratic Party (SDE), Isamaa, Green Party, Richness of Party and the Free Party.

The results showed support for the Reform Party, which fell to a year low of 24 percent in May during the COVID-19 crisis, has risen in the last two months and was 28 percent in June and 31 percent in July. 

The Center Party's support level decreased to 20 percent in May and has fallen further to 19 percent in June and 17 percent in July.

EKRE's support increased during the coronavirus crisis but has decreased in the last two months. In May, it was 22 percent, In June 19 percent and in July 18 percent.

Aivar Voog, leading expert at Kantar Emor, said internal conflicts in the government were to blame for the fall in support which did not show parties in a good light.

The graph below shows that polling by Kantar Emor has frequently seen Center and EKRE move between being the second and third most popular parties over the course of the last year. Reform has consistently been the most popular party but has moved between 36.8 percent and 24 percent.

The support for the non-parliamentary party Estonia 200 is still very high - in July, the party had 14 percent of supporters. The SDE was supported by 9 percent and Isamaa by 6 percent.

The Green Party, Richness of Party and the Free Party all fall below the 5 percent electoral threshold.

Voog noted while the coronavirus crisis allowed coalition parties to receive more media coverage and their total rating increased to 46 percent in May, now it has fallen to 41 percent. The total support of the two opposition parties was 40 percent.

As to respondents' confidence in their choice, among supporters of Estonia 200, only 21 percent are completely positive about their pick. The corresponding share among supporters of EKRE meanwhile is 60 percent. This means that Estonia 200 will find it difficult garnering the support of a large share of voters, Voog said.

In the Kantar Emor survey, "cannot say" responses are eliminated from the overall score to make the outcome as comparable as possible with that of a Riigikogu election. The share of people who picked this option in July was 17.5 percent. The margin of error is ±2,7 percent.

The survey was conducted in the form of online interviews from July 16-22 and altogether 1,125 voting-age Estonian citizens of ages 18-84 were interviewed.

Kantar Emor's ratings can be viewed here.

Earlier this week a poll by Norstat also had the Reform Party as the most popular party, but Center was in second place followed by EKRE.


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Editor: Katriin Eikin Sein, Helen Wright

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