Support for non-parliamentary Estonia 200 rose to 13 percent in November, according to a recent survey, placing it ahead of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE), which has 10 Riigikogu seats.
The survey, conducted by pollsters Turu-uuringute on behalf of ERR, was the second recent poll to put Estonia 200, formed in 2018, ahead of SDE, the other being from Norstat.
Turu-uuringute said Estonia 200's rating rose from 7 percent in October, to 13 percent in November, compared with the 4.4 percent the party received in the March 2019 general election.
SDE stood at 10 percent in the Turu-uuringute poll, up one percentage point from October but still behind Estonia 200.
Coalition party Center picked up 24 percent of support, compared with 23 percent for the opposition Reform Party, both down 3 percentage points on October according to Turu-uuringute.
Coalition Party the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) also saw a fall in support over the same period, from 18 percent to 15 percent, Turu-uuringute said, a low it has only seen one other time since the May 2019 European parliamentary elections.
Isamaa, also in the coalition, rose in support to 6 percent, up one percentage point on October and above the 5 percent threshold required to pick up Riigikogu (or local authority or European) seats.
The Estonian Greens saw 4 percent of support, while the newly-formed TULE party took 1 percent, and all other parties getting 1 percent together.
Nonetheless, Estonia 200's support rise has meant that 19 percent of respondents prefer parties from outside the Riigikogu – higher than the rating for SDE, EKRE or Isamaa – to the five parties which have seats.
Of the latter, the three coalition parties, Center, EKRE and Isamaa, got 45 percent of support whereas the Reform and SDE opposition polled at 33 percent. In October, the respective figures had been 49 percent and 35 percent.
Reform remains the most popular party among native Estonian speakers at 26 percent, compared with 19 percent for Center and 16 percent for EKRE. Estonia 200 received 13 percent, SDE 11 percent and Isamaa 7 percent.
Center retains the highest support level among those polled of other nationalities, at 51 percent. Estonia 200 was next on 12 percent, just ahead of Reform on 11 percent. SDE polled at 7 percent, EKRE at 6 percent and Isamaa at 1 percent of support from non-Estonians polled.
The next elections are in fall 2021, to local government.
Editor: Andrew Whyte