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Estonia 200 sees rise in support in November with three different pollsters

Logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia.
Logos of the six largest political parties in Estonia. Source: ERR

Reform remained the most popular party among respondents to surveys from three different companies, while the non-parliamentary Estonia 200 party saw the greatest rise in support in November.

ERR's online news in Estonian has taken the mean of the most recent surveys from three companies: Norstat, Turu-uuringute and Kantar Emor, which revealed that the opposition Reform Party found 28 percent support among respondents in November, down from 30 percent in October, and 31 percent in September.

As before, Center, the largest of the three coalition parties, is second on 21 percent, and also saw a slight fall on the previous month, from 22 percent.

Coalition party the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) remains in third place on 16 percent, down from 17 percent in October but up on September's figure of 15 percent.

However, Estonia 200 was only just behind the big three at 14 percent, compared with 9 percent for the previous month – the largest rise for any party.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE), in opposition, saw a slight rise, from 10 to 11 percent October to November.

Isamaa's similarly saw a slight rise, from 5 percent in September and October, to 6 percent in November.

This means that Estonia 200 has likely taken support from the largest two parties, particularly Reform, at a time when the proportion of "don't knows" in most surveys has also been falling.

Isamaa's figure is above the 5 percent threshold needed to win Riigikogu (or local or European) seats, a threshold which Estonia 200 only just missed out on in the March 2019 general election.

Of the other two major non-parliamentary parties, the Estonian Greens picked up 3 percent, and the newly-formed TULE party, a merger of the old Free Party and Richness of Life, picked up 1 percent, both figures unchanged on previous months.

ERR started compiling mean figures from all three major pollsters in August, whose margins of error are up to 3 percent.

The companies also have slightly different approaches to taking their polls. Norstat primarily conducts its over the phone, with an online component as well. Turu-uuringute interviews around half of its respondents face-to-face and the remainder online, while Kantar Emor, which also caps its respondents' age limit at 84 and is online-only (the Center Party traditionally performs well with older voters, many of whom may not be online – ed.).


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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