The opposition Reform Party continues to see its popularity rise, as does non-parliamentary party Estonia 200, whose support is now at an all-time high, according to a recent survey conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute for Social Research (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).
Reform picked up 31.5 percent of support, compared with the coalition Center Party on 22.6 percent, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) on 16.6 percent was in third place in the latest poll, an aggregate reflecting the period October 14-November 9.
A total of 3,750 Estonian citizens of voting age were polled.
Estonia 200 retains its recent position of being ahead of both the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) and the coalition Isamaa party, despite not having any seats.
Estonia 200 picked up 9.9 percent, SDE 8.4 percent and Isamaa 5.5 percent.
Estonia 200, which was founded in the second half of 2018 and contested its first election in March 2019, has seen a 2.4-percentage-points increase in its ratings over the past four weeks, the highest since Norstat started conducting surveys of this type at the beginning of 2019.
The three coalition parties together picked up 44.7 percent of support and the two opposition parties, 39.9 percent, representing a rise in support for the coalition of 4.8 percentage points since early October.
Norstat: People more decided on which party they want than earlier
Norstat also says that the proportion of undecided voters has shrunk to its smallest level since early 2019.
"If the Riigikogu elections were to take place today, only 24 per cent of the electorate would be estimated to have no party preference. This would mean a record high turnout of 76 per cent. In real-time elections, the turnout would probably not be so high. We also saw that in a politically acute situation, people were going to vote more in the recent U.S. presidential election, where the final turnout promises to be the highest in over 100 years," said Norstat researcher Martin Mölder.
Only Estonia 200 and Isamaa support has significantly changed since the March 2019 elections, with Estonia 200's support doubling in that time and Isamaa's dropping significantly.
Estonia 200 is a party which has done well out of the relative politicization of the electorate, he added.
"In absolute terms, Estonia's 200 support has moved uphill very clearly and very strongly, while the share of non-preferred voters has fallen by an equal amount. At the same time, EKRE support has made a slight upward move, suggesting that they have been able to mobilize non-preferred voters. "
Since Reform, Center and SDE support has remained mostly static, this demonstrates the three have not been able to capitalize from the current situation as well, he said.
Norstat claims a +/- 1.55 percent margin of error and in presenting four-week aggregate results, says that individual fluctuations in weekly surveys are smoothed out.
The Institute for Social Research is a conservative think tank founded in January 2016, which studies and analyzes social processes taking place within Estonian society.
Editor: Andrew Whyte