The Estonian Information Board (EIB), the state’s foreign intelligence service, published its “International Security and Estonia 2017” report on Wednesday. In the report, EIB specified that there was but one threat to Estonian independence, and that this threat was Russia.
Director general of EIB, Mikk Marran, wrote in the introduction to the report that Estonia’s eastern neighbor was “the only country that could potentially pose a risk to the independence and territorial integrity of the Republic of Estonia”.
Russia, then, is the report’s main focus country. According to Marran, developments in the country had been relatively predictable. Economic recession deepened, the aggressive foreign policy pattern became more pronounced, society moved further towards autocracy, and the results of the State Duma elections had been as predicted.
In Marran’s assessment, what did stand out was the Kremlin’s serious concern for its own power, and the changes made to its leadership structure in order to consolidate and uphold it.
“Undoubtedly, 2017 will offer both routine and surprises – perhaps more of the latter – as the number of variables in international relations has increased at the expense of the constants. In the strategic view, the most important factor for Estonia’s security is the dynamic of Moscow’s relations with the new presidential administration in the US and how the Kremlin will cope with the increasingly restive domestic climate,” Marran wrote.
In a situation where the Kremlin continued to probe the boundaries of what is permitted and
what is not, the vitality of the transatlantic security system based on trust and shared capabilities had reached a critical stage, Marran added. Any efforts by Russia to fracture European unity in the context of elections held in various countries this year had to be watched closely, and the sanctions against Russia needed to remain in place.
“A test of strength is taking place every day in cyberspace as well,” Marran wrote.
You can access the EIB’s 2017 annual report here.
Editor: Editor: Dario Cavegn