According to the results of the latest stage of monitoring, ten percent of Estonia's adult population is currently positive for the COVID-19 virus. The virus is spreading among vaccinated people as well, and some are contracting it for the second or even third time already.

"Indeed, there have not been such high rates of infection before," said Ruth Kalda, director of the Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health at the University of Tartu and head of the monitoring study. "If we compare it with the previous peak in March 2021, the number of infections is 2.5 times higher, but we did not reach the same level of hospitalizations. This gives us hope that we're coping."

According to the results of the latest stage of monitoring, ten percent of Estonia's adult population is currently positive for the COVID-19 virus. The virus is spreading among vaccinated people as well, and some are contracting it for the second or even third time already.

"Indeed, there have not been such high rates of infection before," said Ruth Kalda, director of the Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health at the University of Tartu and head of the monitoring study. "If we compare it with the previous peak in March 2021, the number of infections is 2.5 times higher, but we did not reach the same level of hospitalizations. This gives us hope that we're coping."

The number of COVID patients at Tartu University Hospital (TÜK) has yet to begin to decline, however, and elective treatment cannot yet be restored.

"We're still far from transitioning back to our normal rhythm," TÜK Chief Medical Officer Andres Kotsar said. "Several of our departments are still working at reduced capacity in order to ensure a sufficient number of beds and staff for the treatment of COVID patients."

Kotsar hopes that the hospital, which is the biggest in the southern half of Estonia, can reopen its elective care departments at full capacity in early May.

TÜ virology professor Irja Lutsar said that hospitals should begin preparing now already for a possible new wave of COVID this fall, which could help avoid having to restrict elective care again.

"Hospitals need to plan for who is isolated in the case of PCR-positive people," Lutsar said. "Many countries have dropped self-isolation [requirements]. South Africa dropped self-isolation around Christmastime and has not reintroduced it. Denmark isn't doing it anymore; Sweden isn't doing it anymore."

TÜK nonetheless isn't planning on making changes to its isolation system yet. The primary source of concern remains severe cases of COVID in elderly patients who are largely unvaccinated.

"It is very unlikely that this will now be the final wave of COVID," Kotsar said. "On the contrary, there will probably be more waves to come. We are not going to de-escalate the capacity of our infectious diseases department to pre-pandemic levels."

The results of the latest stage of TÜ's COVID-19 monitoring study indicated that nearly 90 percent of adults in Estonia have developed COVID antibodies, but it is another matter how long these antibodies may last. Lutsar finds that plans should start being made for a fourth COVID vaccine dose, which ideally would be distributed to the elderly before fall.

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