Kantar Emor ratings: Reform increases lead over EKRE

Kantar Emor November ratings.
Kantar Emor November ratings. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR, graphics by Jaan-Juhan Oidermaa.

The November poll commissioned by ERR and carried out by Kantar Emor saw the ruling Reform Party extend its lead over opposition leader the Conservative People's Party (EKRE). The pollster interviewed 1,512 eligible citizens.

Were Riigikogu elections to be held tomorrow, 31 percent of eligible citizens would vote for the Reform Party. Support for the prime minister's party stood at 28 percent in October.

EKRE remain firmly in second place but have lost a little ground since last month, its rating coming down from 25 percent to 22 percent in November and the gap between it and Reform widening to 9 points.

"The Reform Party have all but managed to return to their summer high. The change could follow state energy compensation for private consumers after people got their heating and power bills for October. It is common for changes in conjuncture to affect the ruling party's score," survey expert Aivar Voog said.

EKRE's rating has been volatile for the past four months, fluctuating between 18 and 25 percent.

"This suggests their supporters tend to include people who change their mind often and whose decisions are affected by a given period's media coverage. Such voters tend to gravitate towards leading parties," Voog remarked.

The trend of Reform opening up a lead over EKRE was also reflected in the polls of Norstat (difference of 7.2 points) and Turu-uuringute AS (8 percent).

Center stable but still lagging behind

The Center Party is in third place on 15 percent, followed by the non-parliamentary Eesti 200 with 14 percent of the potential vote in November. Both parties clocked a rating of 14 percent in October, while Eesti 200 have gained since September when theirs came to just 11 percent.

"The Center Party's low continues (the party still enjoyed a rating of 20 percent before the war started this February – ed.) but at least its rating has now stabilized. Eesti 200 managed to match their October result," Aivar Voog offered.

Reform's junior coalition partners the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa were in fifth and sixth place respectively in November, with SDE clocking a rating of 8 percent and Isamaa 6 percent.

The Estonian Greens had the support of 3 percent of people questioned and the Parempoolsed of 1 percent. The Riigikogu elections threshold is 5 percent.

The three coalition parties had the support of 45 percent of respondents and the two opposition parties 37 percent. The combined ratings of three liberal parties (Reform, Eesti 200, SDE) came to 53 percent, while conservative alternatives (EKRE, Isamaa and, conditionally, Center) landed on 43 percent.

EKRE have lost Estonian-speaking voters but gained elsewhere

Ethnic Estonians preferred the Reform Party (37 percent, up from 33 percent in October) followed by EKRE (22 percent, down from 26 percent).

Estonian voters' support for Eesti 200 came to 13 percent, SDE and Center 8 percent, and Isamaa 7 percent.

Non-ethnic Estonians preferred the Center Party in November (40 percent, up from 39 percent) and EKRE (24 percent, up from 21 percent).

Support for Eesti 200 among non-ethnic Estonian respondents grew to 16 percent from 13 percent in October, while that for Reform came in at 8 percent and Isamaa 2 percent.

27 percent of Tallinners prefer the Reform Party, while 22 percent would vote for Center and 17 percent EKRE. Eesti 200 has 13 percent of the potential Tallinn vote, SDE 8 percent and Isamaa 6 percent.

Kantar Emor conducted the poll November 10-17 during which period it interviewed 1,512 voting-age citizens in the 18-84 age group. Half were interviewed online and half over the phone. The maximal margin of error with this sample is +/- 2.52 percent.

The "cannot say" part of votes has been eliminated from the results, which makes the ratings comparable to Riigikogu elections results. Voters without a clear preference made up 28 percent of those questioned (down from 30 percent in October).


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Editor: Marcus Turovski

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