Faktum & Ariko forecast: Reform will take a narrow win over EKRE
Next to pollsters that regularly gauge parties' support ratings, RAIT Faktum & Ariko has put together its own elections forecast according to which Reform will win the election only just ahead of EKRE.
Even though RAIT Faktum & Ariko does not carry out regular party ratings polls, the company has done a few surveys ahead of elections in the past and claims it has been the most accurate.
Their recent study suggests the Reform Party will take 24 percent of the vote ahead of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) on 22 percent. This result is notably difference from other pollsters' predictions (Norstat, Kantar Emor, Turu-uuringute AS) that all give the Reform Party 28-30 percent.
Kalev Petti, head of surveys for RAIT Faktum & Ariko, said that other pollsters still look at which parties people support and not how they might behave at elections.
"Our methodology suggests these are two different things. An EKRE supporter is very likely to turn out to vote, while not all Reform backers might, even though their loyalty is to the party. EKRE and Center Party voters tend to be loyal too, while EKRE will have more new voters compared to the previous elections, which works to lower their loyalty score," Petti explained.
Center took 17 percent and Eesti 200 13 percent of the potential vote in RAIT Faktum & Ariko's pre-election forecast. Isamaa and SDE are suggested to take 8 percent each.
The poll suggests the Estonian Greens and Parempoolsed will not be able to make the election threshold of 5 percent.
Petti said that Reform will get 2/3 of their votes from e-voting, while this is reversed for EKRE for which 2/3 of votes will come in the form of paper ballots (mostly on election day).
"This means that the pressure will be mounting on election night as the votes are counted," he suggested.
RAIT Faktum & Ariko interviewed 959 respondents who intend to vote in the 2023 Riigikogu elections online February 10-27. Of those, 846 had a preference.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski