Party ratings: Reform halts drop in support as EKRE down, Eesti 200 up

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) and members of the Reform Party. January 2023.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) and members of the Reform Party. January 2023. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Reform Party has the support of 28.6 percent, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) 20.9 percent and the Center Party 18.1 percent of eligible voters, according to the latest poll results published by the nonprofit Institute for Societal Studies and Norstat on Friday.

The Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühishonnauuringute Instituut) and Norstat Eesti AS poll participants regarding their party preferences on a weekly basis. The latest aggregate results reflect polls conducted between February 7 and March 3, in which a combined 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens were surveyed.

According to the latest numbers, the coalition Reform Party has halted its nearly three-month long drop in support just ahead of the 2023 Riigikogu elections.

Support for the second-place, opposition EKRE, meanwhile, fell by 1.8 percentage points compared with the results published earlier this week.

Opposition Center's support did not see a significant change compared with earlier this week, but support for the party has dropped by 1.8 percentage points over the past three weeks.

Reform currently has a lead of 7.7 percentage points over EKRE and EKRE, in turn, an edge of 2.8 percentage points over the Center Party.

Following the top three are the nonparliamentary Eesti 200 with 11.2 percent, coalition Isamaa with 8.7 percent and coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 7.5 percent support.

Support for the currently nonparliamentary Eesti 200 has increased by 1.7 percentage points during election week; support for Isamaa and SDE, meanwhile, hasn't changed significantly.

Weekly support by party from February 13 through March 3, 2023. Source: Institute for Societal Studies/Norstat

Estonia's current coalition parties have the combined support of 44.8 percent and opposition parties 39 percent of voters polled.

Based on these support numbers, the Institute of Societal Studies also calculated a possible distribution of mandates in the current parliamentary elections: the Reform Party would earn 33, EKRE 23, the Center Party 19, Eesti 200 11, Isamaa eight and the SDE seven mandates in the 101-seat Riigikogu.

This would mean that the current coalition government, which consists of the Reform Party, Isamaa and SDE would earn a total of 48 mandates, which is insufficient for forming a government.

A liberal coalition consisting of Reform, Eesti 200 and the SDE would command 51 seats; a conservative alliance between EKRE, Center and Isamaa would command 50. A two-party coalition between Reform and Center, meanwhile, would hold 52 seats.

Possible distribution of the Riigikogu's 101 seats by party as of March 3, 2023. Source: Institute of Societal Studies/Norstat

The 2023 Riigikogu elections, in which all of the Estonian parliament's 101 seats are up for election, will be held on Sunday, March 5.

MPs are elected to the Riigikogu for a four-year term.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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