Party ratings: Eesti 200 up to second place on weekly basis, EKRE to fourth

Eesti 200 leader Lauri Hussar and vice-chair and founder Kristina Kallas, speaking at a party press conference on Tuesday afternoon. March 7, 2023.
Eesti 200 leader Lauri Hussar and vice-chair and founder Kristina Kallas, speaking at a party press conference on Tuesday afternoon. March 7, 2023. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Eesti 200 has risen to second-most supported political party in Estonia, according to a recent survey, and when based solely on the week immediately following the Riigikogu election on March 5, suggesting that success breeds success.

The party won its first seats, 14 of them, at those elections, and is currently in coalition negotiations with the Reform Party and the Social Democrats (SDE).

The following is based only on the week following the Riigikogu election; for the results aggregated over four weeks, see below.

The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühishonnauuringute Instituut), found that the Reform Party, the prime minister's party, which increased its Riigikogu seats tally to 37 (from 34), is still most popular among respondents, polling at 30.2 percent, followed by Eesti 200 on 17.5 percent.

Nonetheless, Reforms has fallen, by 2.3 percentage points, compared with election week, Norstat says, though its margin over the rest of the pack remains substantial.

The Center Party came third, with 14.9 percent, Norstat says. The party lost seats at the March 5 election, and now has 16 of them (down from 23 at the end of the XIV Riigikogu).

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), prior to the elections the second-most supported party according to several surveys, is now in fourth place, on 13.5 percent, according to Norstat.

The party lost two seats at the election, and now has 17.

SDE (nine seats now) picked up 9.2 percent of support, ahead of Isamaa (eight seats), which polled at 8.6 percent according to Norstat. Both these parties have seen a rise in support since before the election.

Isamaa is still in office with Reform and SDE, on a caretaker basis until a new coalition deal is signed, but is not involved in the talks aimed at setting up said coalition.

The one week results reflect the survey period from March 7 to 13, when a total of 1,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were quizzed.

When aggregated over the past four weeks, however, the picture still sees Reform (29.2 percent) followed by EKRE (18.9 percent) and Center (16.7 percent).

These three are then followed by Eesti 200 (13.1 percent), Isamaa (8.7 percent) and SDE (8.1 percent).

Parempoolsed, which contested its first ever election on March 5, in fact saw a rise in support to 3 percent over the past week, compared with 2.2 percent over a four-week period. The party polled below the 5 percent threshold required to win seats at the Riigikogu, but above the 2 percent level needed to qualify for state support.

Meanwhile the Greens polled at 1.3 percent over the past week and at 1.5 percent when aggregated over four-weeks.

Over the four week aggregated period (14.02-20.02, 20.02-27.02, 27.02-03.03 and 07.03-13.03) a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and older were polled, using a combined method - a telephone survey and an online survey.

Norstat claims a margin of error which is in proportion to the size of support. For instance, with Reform, with the largest number of supporters, the error margin is +/1 1.74 percent, compared with +/- 1.04 percent for SDE, a smaller party by support.

The new Riigikogu has not yet convened, as various administrative tasks need to be carried out, not least the official confirmation of the official results. One step has been taken towards this already this week however, since all electoral complaints have been resolved (rejected in fact).


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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots

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