Eesti 200 has overtaken the Center Party in terms of support, at least over the past week and by a small margin, according to a recent survey.
The largest three parties by support are the Reform Party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and Eesti 200, according to the survey results published Wednesday and conducted by pollsters Norstat.
Norstat conducts its polls on a weekly basis, and aggregates them over a four-week period. Eesti 200 is ahead of Center on the week, though Center remains in front over four weeks.
Reform and Eesti 200 are currently undergoing coalition negotiations, and it seems likely they will enter office in government, together with the Social Democratic Party (SDE), some time next month.
EKRE are in opposition, as are the Center Party and Isamaa (the latter remain in office on a caretaker basis until the new coalition deal is signed).
The Norstat survey, commissioned by conservative think-tank the Institute for Societal Research (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) found that when aggregated over the past four weeks, Reform polled at 29.2 percent, EKRE at 16.6 percent and Eesti 200 at 15.7 percent.
Reform won 37 seats at the March 5 Riigikogu election, EKRE took 17, and Eesti 200 won 14 – the party's first Riigikogu seats in fact.
These three are followed by Center, which polled at 15.3 percent according to Norstat, SDE (10 percent) and Isamaa (7.8 percent).
Center has 16 seats at the XV Riigikogu, SDE holds nine and Isamaa, eight.
Support for Reform over the past week has not changed, Norstat says, whereas EKRE's has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. Conversely, Eesti 200's has risen by 1.3 percentage points.
SDE's support has risen over the past week, Isamaa's has fallen.
As noted, Eesti 200 has overtaken Center on the basis of Nrostat's results over the past week, though when taken as a four-wekk aggregate, Center remains in third place, Norstat says.
The past four week aggregate results put Reform on 24.8 percent, EKRE on 18.6 percent, Center on 17.3 percent and Eesti 200 on 16 percent of support.
Meanwhile SDE poll at 10.2 percent, when aggregated over the past fours weeks, and Isamaa picked up 7.7 percent of support.
Norstat polled just over 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, when conducting its survey, over the past four weeks, and claims a margin of error of +/- 1.65 percent.
The survey period covered the weeks 27.02-03.03, 07.03-13.03, 14.03-20.03 and 20.03-27.03 and used both online and over-the-phone questionnaires.
The XV Riigikogu is expected to take up its seats in early April.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots