According to incoming Defense Minister Martin Herem, Estonia's current threat picture is fragmented, with the perception of threats varying from place to place, but in the future it could become unified. Tori said Herem's remarks could mean that the regime and its intentions toward Estonia and the West as a whole will not change.

"Even if we do not see a conventional military threat today, in the long term Russia will not change and we have to be prepared for that. We cannot rest on our laurels," he explained.

Tori said that as defense minister, Herem may want preparations to move faster than they have so far. "In other words, to instill a sense of urgency — if something can be done in a day, then let's do it in a day rather than wait two days," he added.

Russia picking up the pace

Recently, defense-related companies and parts of the supply chain have come under attack in countries including Germany, Poland and Lithuania. Tori said a pattern could be discerned behind the incidents and that attention should be directed toward Russia. "There may certainly be some unrelated incidents that happen to fit the pattern, but what is clear is that Russia has decided to step up the pace this year," he said.

In mid-August, a fire broke out at Milrem Robotics' production facility in Tallinn, with sabotage also suspected in that case. "Of course, we are investigating whether this was Russia's handiwork, but at this point it is too early to say one way or the other," Tori said.

He added that the Milrem incident is not an isolated case in Estonia. "Take the arson attack on the Slava Ukraini restaurant, for example," Tori said. He said Estonia has worked for years to make its territory a difficult environment for an adversary to operate in and that the country's internal security situation can be considered secure.

Russia is likely trying to send a message that Estonia should stop helping Ukraine. However, since Estonia has no plans to end its support, the question is how far Russia is prepared to raise the stakes.

Tori said much depends on Estonia's response. "How many people are caught, how many incidents are attributed, how much is done through international cooperation and how much Russia's ability to carry out these activities is actually constrained," he explained.

Putin told Trump on Tuesday that he has no aggressive plans toward Europe. Tori said Russia uses people it can easily disavow to conceal its unconventional activities.

Everybody in the crosshairs

"In reality, it is very easy to say that nothing has exploded, nothing has caught fire, no systems have been hacked and no disinformation campaigns have been carried out — and that is precisely how Russia operates," Tori said. He added that this is why Estonia has a responsibility to make clear to its allies that they are all equally in the crosshairs.

Russia is often described as an existential threat to Europe. Tori said this means Russia wants to dominate Europe and is prepared to use military force to achieve that goal.

Nevertheless, Estonia continues to keep its border with Russia open. Tori said Estonia has closed border crossing points and restricted their opening hours. "We carry out full customs checks at the border on both people and goods," he added.

No threat at border crossings

Tori said that since there is currently no direct threat at Estonia's border crossing points, the borders remain open for now to allow people and goods not subject to sanctions to continue crossing to some extent. "But if the situation changes, we are of course prepared to respond," he added.

There has also been talk of a new mobilization ordered by Putin and Tori said that if it takes place, its scale and timing are unknown. "Above all, we have to be prepared for pressure on Ukraine to increase at some point afterward and that will also increase the need for us to support Ukraine," he said. Estonia should also be prepared for some people to try to leave Russia.

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