Support for the coalition Reform Party and the opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) have practically reached parity, while that of Eesti 200, also in the coalition, has fallen, according to a recent survey.
The research was conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühishonnauuringute Instituut), and published Wednesday – the company normally releases its weekly results on Tuesdays – aggregated over the preceding four weeks.
Support for the three coalition parties, Reform, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE) combined has actually fallen below that of the three opposition parties – EKRE, the Center Party and Isamaa, at 45.7 percent and 48.5 percent respectively, Norstat says.
By party, 24 percent of respondents pledged for Reform, just 0.2 percentage points ahead of the 23.8 percent who picked EKRE.
17.2 percent of respondents to the Norstat poll said they support Center.
While Reform's support has remained static in recent weeks, Norstat says, EKRE's has risen by 7.2 percentage points over the past seven weeks, to the extent that the two parties' are virtually neck-and-neck as noted.
Center's support remains largely unchanged in recent weeks.
Eesti 200's support feel by 1.3 percentage points in one week, to 13.4 percent.
SDE polled at 8.3 percent, and Isamaa at 7.5 percent, in the latest Norstat survey.
The two main non-parliamentary parties, Parempoolsed and the Estonian Greens, polled at 2.7 percent and 1.6 percent respectively, below the 5-percent threshold required to win seats in any election in Estonia, though in Parempoolsed's case, above the 2-percent threshold required to obtain state support – a level the party did indeed achieve at the March 5 election.
Taking the results of the past week alone, EKRE in fact polls ahead of Reform, at 27 percent compared with 23.3 percent. Center also polls significantly better than over the four weeks, at 20.1 percent, while Eesti 200 performs worse, at 8.8 percent.
Isamaa (7.8 percent) and SDE (7.9 percent) see less difference in support levels when taken by the past week alone.
The past week's results are significant in that they cover the period of the current, ongoing Riigikogu filibuster, which started Monday, May 8, and is being conducted by the three opposition parties.
Norstat's four-week aggregate poll as outlined above covers the period April 18 to May 15, while a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were questioned.
Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots