The Reform Party's clear domination in the polls over the last year or so ended in May when the ruling party's rating matches that of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE). Reform's coalition partner Eesti 200 has lost the most ground.
Reform and EKRE are both on 23 percent in Kantar Emor's monthly poll. While the prime minister's party's rating dropped to 23 percent back in April and was unchanged through to May, EKRE has found six points.
The rating of the coalition Eesti 200 party fell from 17 percent in April to 13 percent in May, while the third government partner, the Social Democratic Party (SDE), saw its rating drop from 12 percent to 10 percent.
"The new coalition's tax hikes, family benefits and Family Law amendments, which have been sharply criticized by target groups and the opposition, have clearly impacted their support ratings and afforded the opposition more media attention, which is reflecting in the polls," said Aivar Voog, survey expert for Kantar Emor.
The Center Party came in third in May on 18 percent, up one point from April.
Isamaa, as the smallest opposition force in the Riigikogu, also found one point between April and May for a rating of 8 percent.
Non-parliamentary Parempoolsed and Rohelised clocked a rating of 3 percent each, while the United Left Party is one 1 percent in May.
The summary rating of the coalition dropped to 46 percent in May, down from 52 percent in April and 57 percent following elections in March. That of the opposition parties came to 49 percent.
Support with the "cannot say" vote factored in
The share of respondents without a clear preference also grew to 23 percent, up from 19 percent in April and just 13 percent in March. This came to 20 percent among Estonian respondents and 32 percent among other nationalities.
With the "cannot say" vote considered, Reform's rating would be 18 percent and EKRE's 17 percent in May, followed by Center (13 percent), Eesti 200 (10 percent), SDE (8 percent) and Isamaa (6 percent).
Center gains ground in Tallinn and among non-ethnic Estonians
Among Estonian respondents, Reform is still on top (28 percent), with EKRE supported by 25 percent.
Eesti 200's rating in the voter group is 14 percent, SDE's 10 percent, Isamaa's 9 percent and Center's 8 percent.
The Center Party was clearly the first choice of non-ethnic Estonians at 56 percent, up from 46 percent in April.
EKRE and SDE had 13 and 10 percent of the vote in that group in May.
Center also managed to boost its rating in Tallinn (from 24 percent in April to 32 percent in May). Reform had a rating of 18 percent in the capital in May.
The Center Party is also the most popular choice in Ida-Viru County in May.
Editor: Marcus Turovski
Source: Kantar Emor