Ratings: Isamaa support overtakes Center's in October

Urmas Reinsalu returned as Isamaa leader at party congress in Tallinn, Saturday, June 10, 2023.
Urmas Reinsalu returned as Isamaa leader at party congress in Tallinn, Saturday, June 10, 2023. Source: Siim Lõvi / ERR

Opposition party Isamaa is now the third-most supported party in Estonia, having overtaken the Center Party, also in opposition, according to a recent survey.

Pollsters Turu-uuringute AS, who published the results of their latest survey on Tuesday, say the three coalition partners, the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats (SDE), have seen their support follow a downward spiral, while that of the three opposition parties combined: The Center Party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and Isaamaa, moved in the opposite direction.

However, the fall in support for the coalition parties had halted as of October, Turu-uuringute says, and stands at 41 percent combined, compared with 49 percent for the three opposition parties.

In September, the figures were 41 percent for the coalition and 52 percent for the opposition, according to Turu-uuringute.

The support for the non-parliamentary parties together rose between September and October, from 7 percent to 9 percent.

By party, Reform, the party of the prime minister, remains most-supported at 23 percent in Turu-uuringute's latest survey.

In second place is EKRE, at 19 percent.

Support for both Reform and EKRE remains static in October when compared with September, Turu-uuringute says.

Isamaa has overtaken Center to third place and polled at 16 percent in October, up two percentage points on the previous month.

Center's moved in the opposite direction, to 14 percent this month compared with 18 percent in September, Turu-uuringute says.

This fall follows the election of Mayor of Tallinn Mihhail Kõlvart as party leader in mid-September, which has been followed by several high-profile politicians quitting the party, including its former chief whip and a former environment minister.

The main issue here revolves around perceptions of Kõlvart leading the Russian-speaking wing of the party, vis-a-vis the Estonian-speaking wing.

Isamaa on the other hand has stood out for its strong opposition to tax hikes proposed by the government and included in the 2024 state budget, currently being processed at the Riigikogu.

Eesti 200's support free-fall has halted, Turu-uuringute notes, and has stabilized at 8 percent for October.

Meanwhile, support for SDE remains unchanged on September's figure, at 10 percent, Turu-uuringute says.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed polled at four percent, with 5 percent pledging their support for "other parties" (including the Greens).

The line graph below shows relative party support as reported by Turu-uuringute, going back to January 2022 (Key: Yellow: Reform, dark blue: EKRE, green: Center, pink: Eesti 200, red: SDE, blue: Isamaa, indigo: EÜVP, orange: Parempoolsed, light green: Estonian Greens, lighter orange: Other, gray: Independent candidate).

Turu-uuringute's October poll was conducted September 28 to October 6 and quizzed 879 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (ie. 18 or older, with no age ceiling), in a 50-50 split between online questionnaires and over the phone questionnaires.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Aleksander Krjukov

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